Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a trio of Fed rate pauses through June, with an 83.5% implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. February's CPI print showed core inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—hotter than expected—while nonfarm payrolls added 275,000 jobs, keeping unemployment steady at 3.7%. Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony underscored a data-dependent approach with no rush for cuts, echoing the January FOMC's steady fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. Upcoming March 20 meeting and PCE data loom as catalysts; a hawkish dot plot could solidify pauses, though softening data might lift cut odds to 12.5% for June.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 84%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 13%
Другое 4.0%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение <1%
$649,531 Объем
$649,531 Объем
Пауза–пауза–пауза
84%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
13%
Другое
4%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
<1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 84%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 13%
Другое 4.0%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение <1%
$649,531 Объем
$649,531 Объем
Пауза–пауза–пауза
84%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
13%
Другое
4%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
<1%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a trio of Fed rate pauses through June, with an 83.5% implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. February's CPI print showed core inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—hotter than expected—while nonfarm payrolls added 275,000 jobs, keeping unemployment steady at 3.7%. Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony underscored a data-dependent approach with no rush for cuts, echoing the January FOMC's steady fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. Upcoming March 20 meeting and PCE data loom as catalysts; a hawkish dot plot could solidify pauses, though softening data might lift cut odds to 12.5% for June.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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