Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking up modestly to 4.4%. The March dot plot projected just one rate cut later in 2026, signaling caution due to elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran energy crisis, which have sustained inflation risks. With the April 28-29 meeting approaching, traders price in continuity barring a sharp disinflation surprise from the March 10 CPI release or weakening labor data, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios given resilient economic fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешения ФРС (январь-апрель)
Решения ФРС (январь-апрель)
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.8%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 1.1%
Другое <1%
$394,037 Объем
$394,037 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
1%
Другое
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.8%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 1.1%
Другое <1%
$394,037 Объем
$394,037 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$49,513 Объем
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$168,645 Объем
1%
Другое
$136,492 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking up modestly to 4.4%. The March dot plot projected just one rate cut later in 2026, signaling caution due to elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran energy crisis, which have sustained inflation risks. With the April 28-29 meeting approaching, traders price in continuity barring a sharp disinflation surprise from the March 10 CPI release or weakening labor data, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios given resilient economic fundamentals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Объем
$394,037Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking up modestly to 4.4%. The March dot plot projected just one rate cut later in 2026, signaling caution due to elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran energy crisis, which have sustained inflation risks. With the April 28-29 meeting approaching, traders price in continuity barring a sharp disinflation surprise from the March 10 CPI release or weakening labor data, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios given resilient economic fundamentals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$394,037Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking up modestly to 4.4%. The March dot plot projected just one rate cut later in 2026, signaling caution due to elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran energy crisis, which have sustained inflation risks. With the April 28-29 meeting approaching, traders price in continuity barring a sharp disinflation surprise from the March 10 CPI release or weakening labor data, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios given resilient economic fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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