Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Chair Powell emphasized the current monetary policy stance as appropriate amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening but balanced labor market, with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in Iran, have tempered rate-cut expectations. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or further labor weakness in the April 3 nonfarm payrolls report, potentially shifting trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в апреле?
Решение ФРС в апреле?
Без изменений 96.8%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более 1.8%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов 1.0%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
$37,760,257 Объем
$37,760,257 Объем
Apr 29, 2026
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
1%
Без изменений
97%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
2%
Без изменений 96.8%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более 1.8%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов 1.0%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
$37,760,257 Объем
$37,760,257 Объем
Apr 29, 2026
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
$13,315,117 Объем
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
$7,703,325 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$7,811,321 Объем
97%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
$8,957,592 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Chair Powell emphasized the current monetary policy stance as appropriate amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening but balanced labor market, with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in Iran, have tempered rate-cut expectations. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or further labor weakness in the April 3 nonfarm payrolls report, potentially shifting trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Объем
$37,760,257Дата окончания
Apr 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Chair Powell emphasized the current monetary policy stance as appropriate amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening but balanced labor market, with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in Iran, have tempered rate-cut expectations. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or further labor weakness in the April 3 nonfarm payrolls report, potentially shifting trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$37,760,257Дата окончания
Apr 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Chair Powell emphasized the current monetary policy stance as appropriate amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening but balanced labor market, with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in Iran, have tempered rate-cut expectations. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or further labor weakness in the April 3 nonfarm payrolls report, potentially shifting trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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