Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 1,000-1,700 tweets in May 2026, with 1600-1679 tweets leading at 18.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1100-1200 ranges amid his volatile posting habits. Recent surges—averaging 80-120 daily tweets in late 2024 amid election fervor, xAI announcements, and X platform tweaks—fuel optimism for sustained high volume, but traders discount extremes like 2000+ (1.8%) anticipating normalization post-politics. Historical precedents, including 1,500+ monthly peaks during Tesla launches and controversies, underscore the cluster, while X's premium limits cap upside; key watch is spring 2026 catalysts like Starship tests or regulatory battles differentiating frontrunners.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1320-1359 15.3%
1480-1519 15.3%
1040–1079 14.2%
1280-1319 13.6%
$61,036 Объем
$61,036 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80–99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160–179
<1%
180–199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260–279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420–439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460–479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620–639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660–679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760–779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840–879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040–1079
14%
1080-1119
18%
1120-1159
18%
1160–1199
17%
1200-1239
10%
1240-1279
11%
1280-1319
14%
1320-1359
15%
1360–1399
11%
1400-1439
13%
1440–1479
12%
1480-1519
15%
1520-1559
15%
1560-1599
12%
1600-1679
18%
1680-1759
15%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1320-1359 15.3%
1480-1519 15.3%
1040–1079 14.2%
1280-1319 13.6%
$61,036 Объем
$61,036 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80–99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160–179
<1%
180–199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260–279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420–439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460–479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620–639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660–679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760–779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840–879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040–1079
14%
1080-1119
18%
1120-1159
18%
1160–1199
17%
1200-1239
10%
1240-1279
11%
1280-1319
14%
1320-1359
15%
1360–1399
11%
1400-1439
13%
1440–1479
12%
1480-1519
15%
1520-1559
15%
1560-1599
12%
1600-1679
18%
1680-1759
15%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 1,000-1,700 tweets in May 2026, with 1600-1679 tweets leading at 18.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1100-1200 ranges amid his volatile posting habits. Recent surges—averaging 80-120 daily tweets in late 2024 amid election fervor, xAI announcements, and X platform tweaks—fuel optimism for sustained high volume, but traders discount extremes like 2000+ (1.8%) anticipating normalization post-politics. Historical precedents, including 1,500+ monthly peaks during Tesla launches and controversies, underscore the cluster, while X's premium limits cap upside; key watch is spring 2026 catalysts like Starship tests or regulatory battles differentiating frontrunners.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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