Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's March 18-23 survey showing Lula da Silva at 45.9% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% for a 5.8-point first-round margin, underscore trader consensus on a narrowly contested Brazil presidential race heading to October 4. Consistent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and others reflect leads of 5-7 points between the top two, with no candidate nearing the 50% threshold for outright victory, amid a fragmented field including Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal could consolidate right-wing support for Bolsonaro, while economic pressures and polarized turnout among key voting blocs keep margins tight; scandals, endorsements, or shifts in undecided voters (around 5-10%) may widen gaps before the runoff-triggering first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва <5% 36%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 29%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 6.4%
$14,107 Объем
$14,107 Объем
Oct 4, 2026
Лула да Силва 15%+
6%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
3%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
36%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
4%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
6%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
29%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
6%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
2%
Другой
4%
Лула да Силва <5% 36%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 29%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 6.4%
$14,107 Объем
$14,107 Объем
Oct 4, 2026
Лула да Силва 15%+
$3,567 Объем
6%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$1,330 Объем
3%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$1,722 Объем
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
$1,590 Объем
36%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$695 Объем
4%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$688 Объем
6%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$1,489 Объем
29%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$833 Объем
6%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$531 Объем
1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$818 Объем
2%
Другой
$845 Объем
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's March 18-23 survey showing Lula da Silva at 45.9% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% for a 5.8-point first-round margin, underscore trader consensus on a narrowly contested Brazil presidential race heading to October 4. Consistent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and others reflect leads of 5-7 points between the top two, with no candidate nearing the 50% threshold for outright victory, amid a fragmented field including Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal could consolidate right-wing support for Bolsonaro, while economic pressures and polarized turnout among key voting blocs keep margins tight; scandals, endorsements, or shifts in undecided voters (around 5-10%) may widen gaps before the runoff-triggering first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$14,107Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's March 18-23 survey showing Lula da Silva at 45.9% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% for a 5.8-point first-round margin, underscore trader consensus on a narrowly contested Brazil presidential race heading to October 4. Consistent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and others reflect leads of 5-7 points between the top two, with no candidate nearing the 50% threshold for outright victory, amid a fragmented field including Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal could consolidate right-wing support for Bolsonaro, while economic pressures and polarized turnout among key voting blocs keep margins tight; scandals, endorsements, or shifts in undecided voters (around 5-10%) may widen gaps before the runoff-triggering first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$14,107Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's March 18-23 survey showing Lula da Silva at 45.9% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% for a 5.8-point first-round margin, underscore trader consensus on a narrowly contested Brazil presidential race heading to October 4. Consistent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and others reflect leads of 5-7 points between the top two, with no candidate nearing the 50% threshold for outright victory, amid a fragmented field including Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal could consolidate right-wing support for Bolsonaro, while economic pressures and polarized turnout among key voting blocs keep margins tight; scandals, endorsements, or shifts in undecided voters (around 5-10%) may widen gaps before the runoff-triggering first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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