CDU holds a steady lead in recent opinion polls around 22% for the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, positioning it as trader consensus favorite to emerge as the largest party with 50.5% implied probability, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD trails at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, and Linke at 15%. This reflects the incumbency advantage of the CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, sustained since the 2023 vote, amid national trends favoring conservatives post-federal election. The latest INSA poll from late February shows no major shifts, though recent Baden-Württemberg results bolstered CDU momentum with strong performance there. Traders price lower odds for challengers due to multiparty competition and historical Berlin polling stability, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 51%
Зелёные 11.8%
Левица 12%
АдГ 10.8%
$1,960,329 Объем
$1,960,329 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
51%
Зелёные
12%
Левица
12%
АдГ
11%
СДПГ
9%
BSW
1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 51%
Зелёные 11.8%
Левица 12%
АдГ 10.8%
$1,960,329 Объем
$1,960,329 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$9,012 Объем
51%
Зелёные
$23,086 Объем
12%
Левица
$8,237 Объем
12%
АдГ
$1,609,874 Объем
11%
СДПГ
$281,769 Объем
9%
BSW
$15,565 Объем
1%
СвДП
$8,318 Объем
<1%
FW
$5,121 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU holds a steady lead in recent opinion polls around 22% for the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, positioning it as trader consensus favorite to emerge as the largest party with 50.5% implied probability, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD trails at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, and Linke at 15%. This reflects the incumbency advantage of the CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, sustained since the 2023 vote, amid national trends favoring conservatives post-federal election. The latest INSA poll from late February shows no major shifts, though recent Baden-Württemberg results bolstered CDU momentum with strong performance there. Traders price lower odds for challengers due to multiparty competition and historical Berlin polling stability, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$1,960,329Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU holds a steady lead in recent opinion polls around 22% for the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, positioning it as trader consensus favorite to emerge as the largest party with 50.5% implied probability, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD trails at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, and Linke at 15%. This reflects the incumbency advantage of the CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, sustained since the 2023 vote, amid national trends favoring conservatives post-federal election. The latest INSA poll from late February shows no major shifts, though recent Baden-Württemberg results bolstered CDU momentum with strong performance there. Traders price lower odds for challengers due to multiparty competition and historical Berlin polling stability, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$1,960,329Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...CDU holds a steady lead in recent opinion polls around 22% for the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, positioning it as trader consensus favorite to emerge as the largest party with 50.5% implied probability, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD trails at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, and Linke at 15%. This reflects the incumbency advantage of the CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, sustained since the 2023 vote, amid national trends favoring conservatives post-federal election. The latest INSA poll from late February shows no major shifts, though recent Baden-Württemberg results bolstered CDU momentum with strong performance there. Traders price lower odds for challengers due to multiparty competition and historical Berlin polling stability, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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