Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 51%
Левица 13%
Зелёные 11.8%
АдГ 10.7%
$1,887,930 Объем
$1,887,930 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
51%
Левица
13%
Зелёные
12%
АдГ
11%
СДПГ
9%
BSW
1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 51%
Левица 13%
Зелёные 11.8%
АдГ 10.7%
$1,887,930 Объем
$1,887,930 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$9,012 Объем
51%
Левица
$8,150 Объем
13%
Зелёные
$23,086 Объем
12%
АдГ
$1,538,150 Объем
11%
СДПГ
$281,769 Объем
9%
BSW
$15,565 Объем
1%
СвДП
$8,318 Объем
<1%
FW
$5,121 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$1,887,930Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$1,887,930Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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