Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 55%
Левица 14%
АдГ 11.4%
Зелёные 10.4%
$1,505,862 Объем
$1,505,862 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
55%
Левица
14%
АдГ
11%
Зелёные
10%
СДПГ
10%
BSW
1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 55%
Левица 14%
АдГ 11.4%
Зелёные 10.4%
$1,505,862 Объем
$1,505,862 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$8,525 Объем
55%
Левица
$7,843 Объем
14%
АдГ
$1,161,267 Объем
11%
Зелёные
$22,268 Объем
10%
СДПГ
$281,317 Объем
10%
BSW
$14,663 Объем
1%
СвДП
$7,824 Объем
<1%
FW
$4,577 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$1,505,862Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$1,505,862Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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