Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability for an AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by the benchmark's extreme difficulty—hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems vetted by experts like Terence Tao, who anticipated years of resistance. Current top scores hover around 48% for OpenAI's GPT-5.4, a leap from o1's 5% in late 2024 but still far short, reflecting incremental gains amid scaling limits and architectural hurdles in large language model reasoning. Recent catalysts include GPT-5.4 Pro solving an Erdős open problem, sparking optimism, yet traders doubt a jump to near-perfect performance within eight months without major breakthroughs. Watch for upcoming releases like GPT-5.5, which could shift sentiment if benchmark records accelerate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМодель ИИ набирает ≥ 90% по FrontierMath Benchmark до 2027 года?
Модель ИИ набирает ≥ 90% по FrontierMath Benchmark до 2027 года?
Да
$47,297 Объем
$47,297 Объем
Да
$47,297 Объем
$47,297 Объем
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability for an AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by the benchmark's extreme difficulty—hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems vetted by experts like Terence Tao, who anticipated years of resistance. Current top scores hover around 48% for OpenAI's GPT-5.4, a leap from o1's 5% in late 2024 but still far short, reflecting incremental gains amid scaling limits and architectural hurdles in large language model reasoning. Recent catalysts include GPT-5.4 Pro solving an Erdős open problem, sparking optimism, yet traders doubt a jump to near-perfect performance within eight months without major breakthroughs. Watch for upcoming releases like GPT-5.5, which could shift sentiment if benchmark records accelerate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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