Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability for "No" on an AI model achieving ≥90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unpublished research-level math problems—Tier 4 alone featuring open challenges that stump expert mathematicians for days. Frontier models have progressed from o3's ~25% in late 2024 to GPT-5.4's record 47.6% overall (38% on Tier 4 as of March 2026 per Epoch AI evals), but recent gains have tapered, underscoring limits in current large language model reasoning despite massive scaling. Upcoming catalysts like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 "Spud," Anthropic's Opus 5, or Google Gemini 4 could shift odds, yet traders bet against a 40+ percentage-point jump in under nine months given historical benchmark saturation patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМодель ИИ набирает ≥ 90% по FrontierMath Benchmark до 2027 года?
Модель ИИ набирает ≥ 90% по FrontierMath Benchmark до 2027 года?
Да
$47,297 Объем
$47,297 Объем
Да
$47,297 Объем
$47,297 Объем
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability for "No" on an AI model achieving ≥90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unpublished research-level math problems—Tier 4 alone featuring open challenges that stump expert mathematicians for days. Frontier models have progressed from o3's ~25% in late 2024 to GPT-5.4's record 47.6% overall (38% on Tier 4 as of March 2026 per Epoch AI evals), but recent gains have tapered, underscoring limits in current large language model reasoning despite massive scaling. Upcoming catalysts like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 "Spud," Anthropic's Opus 5, or Google Gemini 4 could shift odds, yet traders bet against a 40+ percentage-point jump in under nine months given historical benchmark saturation patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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