Moonshot AI's rapid iteration pace, exemplified by the April 20, 2026, launch of open-source Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model excelling in long-horizon coding, 300-agent swarms, and benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (58.6%)—has traders betting on an imminent Kimi K3 release. Fresh $2 billion funding at a $20 billion valuation on May 7 bolsters compute for the rumored 2.5-trillion-parameter successor with 1-million+ token context, amid Chinese labs' aggressive open-weight cadence outpacing Western frontiers. Polymarket-implied odds favor June 30, reflecting historical shipping patterns every 2-3 months, though compute bottlenecks or unannounced benchmarks could prompt an earlier drop or delay into Q3. Key catalyst: official API previews or developer conference teases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKimi K3 released by…?
Kimi K3 released by…?
$38,510 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 30
15%
31 мая
9%
$38,510 Объем
June 30
$3,288 Объем
15%
31 мая
$1,820 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration pace, exemplified by the April 20, 2026, launch of open-source Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model excelling in long-horizon coding, 300-agent swarms, and benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (58.6%)—has traders betting on an imminent Kimi K3 release. Fresh $2 billion funding at a $20 billion valuation on May 7 bolsters compute for the rumored 2.5-trillion-parameter successor with 1-million+ token context, amid Chinese labs' aggressive open-weight cadence outpacing Western frontiers. Polymarket-implied odds favor June 30, reflecting historical shipping patterns every 2-3 months, though compute bottlenecks or unannounced benchmarks could prompt an earlier drop or delay into Q3. Key catalyst: official API previews or developer conference teases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Объем
$38,510Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration pace, exemplified by the April 20, 2026, launch of open-source Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model excelling in long-horizon coding, 300-agent swarms, and benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (58.6%)—has traders betting on an imminent Kimi K3 release. Fresh $2 billion funding at a $20 billion valuation on May 7 bolsters compute for the rumored 2.5-trillion-parameter successor with 1-million+ token context, amid Chinese labs' aggressive open-weight cadence outpacing Western frontiers. Polymarket-implied odds favor June 30, reflecting historical shipping patterns every 2-3 months, though compute bottlenecks or unannounced benchmarks could prompt an earlier drop or delay into Q3. Key catalyst: official API previews or developer conference teases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$38,510Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid iteration pace, exemplified by the April 20, 2026, launch of open-source Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model excelling in long-horizon coding, 300-agent swarms, and benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (58.6%)—has traders betting on an imminent Kimi K3 release. Fresh $2 billion funding at a $20 billion valuation on May 7 bolsters compute for the rumored 2.5-trillion-parameter successor with 1-million+ token context, amid Chinese labs' aggressive open-weight cadence outpacing Western frontiers. Polymarket-implied odds favor June 30, reflecting historical shipping patterns every 2-3 months, though compute bottlenecks or unannounced benchmarks could prompt an earlier drop or delay into Q3. Key catalyst: official API previews or developer conference teases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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