Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a roughly 50% implied probability for a ChatGPT outage by April 17, driven by OpenAI's recent partial disruptions, including a two-hour web service glitch on April 6 where users received blank responses while APIs and mobile apps functioned normally. This follows a pattern of incidents earlier in 2026—major downtime affecting thousands in early February, message-sending issues on March 5, and VPN access problems on April 7—highlighting ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid surging demand and compute-intensive inference. Despite 99.98% reported uptime, high traffic from enterprise adoption and new features strains infrastructure; competitors like Anthropic's Claude see upticks during outages. Traders should watch OpenAI's status page for the next partial or full outage declaration, with resolution hinging on official classifications before mid-April deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоChatGPT Outage by...?
ChatGPT Outage by...?
НОВОЕ
10 апр. 2026 г.
April 10
32%
April 17
55%
$1,105 Объем
April 10
$363 Объем
32%
April 17
$742 Объем
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a roughly 50% implied probability for a ChatGPT outage by April 17, driven by OpenAI's recent partial disruptions, including a two-hour web service glitch on April 6 where users received blank responses while APIs and mobile apps functioned normally. This follows a pattern of incidents earlier in 2026—major downtime affecting thousands in early February, message-sending issues on March 5, and VPN access problems on April 7—highlighting ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid surging demand and compute-intensive inference. Despite 99.98% reported uptime, high traffic from enterprise adoption and new features strains infrastructure; competitors like Anthropic's Claude see upticks during outages. Traders should watch OpenAI's status page for the next partial or full outage declaration, with resolution hinging on official classifications before mid-April deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Объем
$1,105Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a roughly 50% implied probability for a ChatGPT outage by April 17, driven by OpenAI's recent partial disruptions, including a two-hour web service glitch on April 6 where users received blank responses while APIs and mobile apps functioned normally. This follows a pattern of incidents earlier in 2026—major downtime affecting thousands in early February, message-sending issues on March 5, and VPN access problems on April 7—highlighting ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid surging demand and compute-intensive inference. Despite 99.98% reported uptime, high traffic from enterprise adoption and new features strains infrastructure; competitors like Anthropic's Claude see upticks during outages. Traders should watch OpenAI's status page for the next partial or full outage declaration, with resolution hinging on official classifications before mid-April deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,105Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a roughly 50% implied probability for a ChatGPT outage by April 17, driven by OpenAI's recent partial disruptions, including a two-hour web service glitch on April 6 where users received blank responses while APIs and mobile apps functioned normally. This follows a pattern of incidents earlier in 2026—major downtime affecting thousands in early February, message-sending issues on March 5, and VPN access problems on April 7—highlighting ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid surging demand and compute-intensive inference. Despite 99.98% reported uptime, high traffic from enterprise adoption and new features strains infrastructure; competitors like Anthropic's Claude see upticks during outages. Traders should watch OpenAI's status page for the next partial or full outage declaration, with resolution hinging on official classifications before mid-April deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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