Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any credible catalysts such as impeachment proceedings, health crises, or legal convictions forcing an early exit. Recent Democratic strategist James Carville's speculation about post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance has gained media attention but lacks substantiation from official statements or White House actions, dismissed by markets as partisan conjecture. Trump's ongoing cabinet adjustments, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and consideration of further changes, signal administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary pressure like Nixon's Watergate scandal, with 2026 midterms looming as the primary near-term risk factor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$409,410 Vol.
$409,410 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$409,410 Vol.
$409,410 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any credible catalysts such as impeachment proceedings, health crises, or legal convictions forcing an early exit. Recent Democratic strategist James Carville's speculation about post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance has gained media attention but lacks substantiation from official statements or White House actions, dismissed by markets as partisan conjecture. Trump's ongoing cabinet adjustments, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and consideration of further changes, signal administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary pressure like Nixon's Watergate scandal, with 2026 midterms looming as the primary near-term risk factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$409,410Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any credible catalysts such as impeachment proceedings, health crises, or legal convictions forcing an early exit. Recent Democratic strategist James Carville's speculation about post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance has gained media attention but lacks substantiation from official statements or White House actions, dismissed by markets as partisan conjecture. Trump's ongoing cabinet adjustments, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and consideration of further changes, signal administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary pressure like Nixon's Watergate scandal, with 2026 midterms looming as the primary near-term risk factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$409,410Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any credible catalysts such as impeachment proceedings, health crises, or legal convictions forcing an early exit. Recent Democratic strategist James Carville's speculation about post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance has gained media attention but lacks substantiation from official statements or White House actions, dismissed by markets as partisan conjecture. Trump's ongoing cabinet adjustments, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and consideration of further changes, signal administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary pressure like Nixon's Watergate scandal, with 2026 midterms looming as the primary near-term risk factor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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