Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid structural spending-revenue imbalances. Recent Treasury data shows deficits totaling over $1 trillion in FY2026's first five months, with February alone at $308 billion, fueled by elevated discretionary outlays and interest costs on $39 trillion national debt. Trump's newly released FY2027 budget requests a $100 billion discretionary hike, offsetting tariff revenue gains and complicating fiscal consolidation. Key catalysts ahead include April Treasury statements and mid-year CBO updates, with debt-to-GDP on track to hit 120% by 2036 per baseline projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid structural spending-revenue imbalances. Recent Treasury data shows deficits totaling over $1 trillion in FY2026's first five months, with February alone at $308 billion, fueled by elevated discretionary outlays and interest costs on $39 trillion national debt. Trump's newly released FY2027 budget requests a $100 billion discretionary hike, offsetting tariff revenue gains and complicating fiscal consolidation. Key catalysts ahead include April Treasury statements and mid-year CBO updates, with debt-to-GDP on track to hit 120% by 2036 per baseline projections.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$385Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid structural spending-revenue imbalances. Recent Treasury data shows deficits totaling over $1 trillion in FY2026's first five months, with February alone at $308 billion, fueled by elevated discretionary outlays and interest costs on $39 trillion national debt. Trump's newly released FY2027 budget requests a $100 billion discretionary hike, offsetting tariff revenue gains and complicating fiscal consolidation. Key catalysts ahead include April Treasury statements and mid-year CBO updates, with debt-to-GDP on track to hit 120% by 2036 per baseline projections.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$385Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid structural spending-revenue imbalances. Recent Treasury data shows deficits totaling over $1 trillion in FY2026's first five months, with February alone at $308 billion, fueled by elevated discretionary outlays and interest costs on $39 trillion national debt. Trump's newly released FY2027 budget requests a $100 billion discretionary hike, offsetting tariff revenue gains and complicating fiscal consolidation. Key catalysts ahead include April Treasury statements and mid-year CBO updates, with debt-to-GDP on track to hit 120% by 2036 per baseline projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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