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Política·Gronelândia

Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?

Market icon
Política·Gronelândia

Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?

Sim

7% acaso
Polymarket

$1,266,530 Vol.

Sim

7% acaso
Polymarket

$1,266,530 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 Davos pledge ruling out military force to acquire the Danish autonomous territory, shifting focus to diplomatic negotiations. Subsequent talks involving U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officials—starting January 28—have centered on expanded U.S. military access and new bases at existing sites like Thule Air Base, rather than annexation or invasion. Denmark's revelation of contingency plans to sabotage runways underscored allied resolve, while a U.S. congressional bill blocks funding for hostile actions. Absent military mobilization or escalatory rhetoric amid NATO obligations, traders see negligible invasion risk despite Trump's persistent acquisition interest. Late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or Arctic security shifts remain remote catalysts for change.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,266,530
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 Davos pledge ruling out military force to acquire the Danish autonomous territory, shifting focus to diplomatic negotiations. Subsequent talks involving U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officials—starting January 28—have centered on expanded U.S. military access and new bases at existing sites like Thule Air Base, rather than annexation or invasion. Denmark's revelation of contingency plans to sabotage runways underscored allied resolve, while a U.S. congressional bill blocks funding for hostile actions. Absent military mobilization or escalatory rhetoric amid NATO obligations, traders see negligible invasion risk despite Trump's persistent acquisition interest. Late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or Arctic security shifts remain remote catalysts for change.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,266,530
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" is "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir a Groenlândia em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.