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Tecnologia·IA

Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?

Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$315,151 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$315,151 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$315,151
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2025
Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2025, 11:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Yes

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$315,151
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2025
Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2025, 11:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Yes

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Yes

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?" has generated $315.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.