OpenAI's recent $122 billion funding round, closing at an $852 billion post-money valuation just days ago, has fueled trader optimism for a blockbuster IPO, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around high market cap outcomes like 750B–1T (29%) and No IPO by December 31, 2027 (31%). This reflects competitive pressures from Anthropic, which is racing toward its own public debut, prompting OpenAI to accelerate groundwork including finance team hires and Wall Street bank talks for a potential Q4 2026 listing. However, lingering governance restructuring hurdles from its nonprofit origins, Microsoft partnership clauses mandating share buyouts upon IPO, and elevated cash burn amid $25 billion projected 2026 revenue temper enthusiasm, creating a closely contested trader consensus on execution risks versus trillion-dollar valuation potential driven by enterprise AI dominance. Key swing factors include S-1 filing timelines and regulatory clearances later this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado750B–1T 29%
1T–1,25T 23%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 22%
500–750B 20%
$13,692 Vol.
$13,692 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
16%
500–750B
22%
750B–1T
29%
1T–1,25T
23%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1,5T+
16%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
31%
750B–1T 29%
1T–1,25T 23%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 22%
500–750B 20%
$13,692 Vol.
$13,692 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<500B
$0 Vol.
16%
500–750B
$0 Vol.
22%
750B–1T
$54 Vol.
29%
1T–1,25T
$2,790 Vol.
23%
1,25T–1,5T
$105 Vol.
16%
1,5T+
$0 Vol.
16%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$10,742 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's recent $122 billion funding round, closing at an $852 billion post-money valuation just days ago, has fueled trader optimism for a blockbuster IPO, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around high market cap outcomes like 750B–1T (29%) and No IPO by December 31, 2027 (31%). This reflects competitive pressures from Anthropic, which is racing toward its own public debut, prompting OpenAI to accelerate groundwork including finance team hires and Wall Street bank talks for a potential Q4 2026 listing. However, lingering governance restructuring hurdles from its nonprofit origins, Microsoft partnership clauses mandating share buyouts upon IPO, and elevated cash burn amid $25 billion projected 2026 revenue temper enthusiasm, creating a closely contested trader consensus on execution risks versus trillion-dollar valuation potential driven by enterprise AI dominance. Key swing factors include S-1 filing timelines and regulatory clearances later this year.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$13,692Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's recent $122 billion funding round, closing at an $852 billion post-money valuation just days ago, has fueled trader optimism for a blockbuster IPO, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around high market cap outcomes like 750B–1T (29%) and No IPO by December 31, 2027 (31%). This reflects competitive pressures from Anthropic, which is racing toward its own public debut, prompting OpenAI to accelerate groundwork including finance team hires and Wall Street bank talks for a potential Q4 2026 listing. However, lingering governance restructuring hurdles from its nonprofit origins, Microsoft partnership clauses mandating share buyouts upon IPO, and elevated cash burn amid $25 billion projected 2026 revenue temper enthusiasm, creating a closely contested trader consensus on execution risks versus trillion-dollar valuation potential driven by enterprise AI dominance. Key swing factors include S-1 filing timelines and regulatory clearances later this year.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$13,692Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's recent $122 billion funding round, closing at an $852 billion post-money valuation just days ago, has fueled trader optimism for a blockbuster IPO, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around high market cap outcomes like 750B–1T (29%) and No IPO by December 31, 2027 (31%). This reflects competitive pressures from Anthropic, which is racing toward its own public debut, prompting OpenAI to accelerate groundwork including finance team hires and Wall Street bank talks for a potential Q4 2026 listing. However, lingering governance restructuring hurdles from its nonprofit origins, Microsoft partnership clauses mandating share buyouts upon IPO, and elevated cash burn amid $25 billion projected 2026 revenue temper enthusiasm, creating a closely contested trader consensus on execution risks versus trillion-dollar valuation potential driven by enterprise AI dominance. Key swing factors include S-1 filing timelines and regulatory clearances later this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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