Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

$1,399,958 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$1,399,958 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$340,241 Vol.

28%

Market icon

xAI

$539,659 Vol.

12%

Market icon

Alibaba

$4,740 Vol.

10%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$223,298 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Meta

$12,822 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Z.ai

$4,402 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Baidu

$1,924 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Mistral

$6,347 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$5,843 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Meituan

$2,712 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior reasoning and low hallucination rates, anchoring trader sentiment amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Recent catalysts include Google DeepMind's April 2 announcement of Gemma 4 open models—already testing strongly as "significant-otter" on the arena with elite coding prowess—and a leaked, now-deleted Anthropic post hinting at "dramatically smarter" Claude Mythos 5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas trail closely in multi-agent tasks. With model releases accelerating toward June 30 resolution, watch for OpenAI's next frontier drop and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety to sway the leaderboard.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,399,958
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior reasoning and low hallucination rates, anchoring trader sentiment amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Recent catalysts include Google DeepMind's April 2 announcement of Gemma 4 open models—already testing strongly as "significant-otter" on the arena with elite coding prowess—and a leaked, now-deleted Anthropic post hinting at "dramatically smarter" Claude Mythos 5. xAI's Grok 4.20 betas trail closely in multi-agent tasks. With model releases accelerating toward June 30 resolution, watch for OpenAI's next frontier drop and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety to sway the leaderboard.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,399,958
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.