US and Israeli forces have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure since early March, marking nearly four weeks of escalation that prompted Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and a US base in Saudi Arabia on March 28, injuring American troops. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled readiness for military action if Tehran targets their energy or water facilities further, amid Houthi missile barrages supporting Iran. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional countries joining by March 31, prioritizing de-escalation signals from Washington despite threats, with the tight deadline limiting response windows and no confirmed new strikes from allies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$10,426,714 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arábia Saudita
8%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
6%
Bahrein
2%
Catar
2%
Kuwait
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Algum país da UE
1%
Turquia
1%
França
1%
Jordânia
1%
Omã
<1%
Alemanha
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,426,714 Vol.
Arábia Saudita
$2,138,120 Vol.
8%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
$2,584,616 Vol.
6%
Bahrein
$389,071 Vol.
2%
Catar
$937,807 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$209,987 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$941,124 Vol.
1%
Algum país da UE
$462,479 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$476,085 Vol.
1%
França
$724,456 Vol.
1%
Jordânia
$187,467 Vol.
1%
Omã
$130,144 Vol.
<1%
Alemanha
$909,827 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$335,532 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure since early March, marking nearly four weeks of escalation that prompted Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and a US base in Saudi Arabia on March 28, injuring American troops. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled readiness for military action if Tehran targets their energy or water facilities further, amid Houthi missile barrages supporting Iran. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional countries joining by March 31, prioritizing de-escalation signals from Washington despite threats, with the tight deadline limiting response windows and no confirmed new strikes from allies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$10,426,714Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure since early March, marking nearly four weeks of escalation that prompted Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and a US base in Saudi Arabia on March 28, injuring American troops. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled readiness for military action if Tehran targets their energy or water facilities further, amid Houthi missile barrages supporting Iran. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional countries joining by March 31, prioritizing de-escalation signals from Washington despite threats, with the tight deadline limiting response windows and no confirmed new strikes from allies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,426,714Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, defense industries, and infrastructure since early March, marking nearly four weeks of escalation that prompted Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and a US base in Saudi Arabia on March 28, injuring American troops. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled readiness for military action if Tehran targets their energy or water facilities further, amid Houthi missile barrages supporting Iran. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional countries joining by March 31, prioritizing de-escalation signals from Washington despite threats, with the tight deadline limiting response windows and no confirmed new strikes from allies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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