US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets began February 28, 2026, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel—starting March 1—and US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia by March 31. Over 400 Iranian attack waves targeted Israel alone by late March, breaching defenses in areas like Tel Aviv and northern regions, though most were intercepted. Escalation continued post-deadline with Iranian salvos on April 2-3 hitting Israeli cities and Gulf oil infrastructure, while US-Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile capabilities. Traders weigh Iran's depleted arsenal, proxy involvement via Houthis and Hezbollah, and diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt amid oil disruptions and global calls for de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$4,125,829 Vol.
7 mar 2026
UAE
63%
Oman
15%
Afeganistão
2%
Georgia
2%
Azerbaijan
1%
Armenia
1%
Síria
1%
Turquia
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Paquistão
<1%
Iêmen
<1%
Índia
<1%
Chipre
<1%
Germany
<1%
France
<1%
Hungary
<1%
Spain
<1%
Poland
<1%
Italy
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
$4,125,829 Vol.
UAE
$116,975 Vol.
63%
Oman
$78,066 Vol.
15%
Afeganistão
$84,473 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$1,699 Vol.
2%
Azerbaijan
$34,662 Vol.
1%
Armenia
$2,703 Vol.
1%
Síria
$366,780 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$532,547 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$55,549 Vol.
1%
Paquistão
$76,612 Vol.
<1%
Iêmen
$99,265 Vol.
<1%
Índia
$118,953 Vol.
<1%
Chipre
$1,326,106 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$7,786 Vol.
<1%
France
$6,431 Vol.
<1%
Hungary
$2,698 Vol.
<1%
Spain
$88,523 Vol.
<1%
Poland
$282,970 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
Ukraine
$7,226 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets began February 28, 2026, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel—starting March 1—and US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia by March 31. Over 400 Iranian attack waves targeted Israel alone by late March, breaching defenses in areas like Tel Aviv and northern regions, though most were intercepted. Escalation continued post-deadline with Iranian salvos on April 2-3 hitting Israeli cities and Gulf oil infrastructure, while US-Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile capabilities. Traders weigh Iran's depleted arsenal, proxy involvement via Houthis and Hezbollah, and diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt amid oil disruptions and global calls for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ET
Volume
$4,125,829Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets began February 28, 2026, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel—starting March 1—and US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia by March 31. Over 400 Iranian attack waves targeted Israel alone by late March, breaching defenses in areas like Tel Aviv and northern regions, though most were intercepted. Escalation continued post-deadline with Iranian salvos on April 2-3 hitting Israeli cities and Gulf oil infrastructure, while US-Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile capabilities. Traders weigh Iran's depleted arsenal, proxy involvement via Houthis and Hezbollah, and diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt amid oil disruptions and global calls for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$4,125,829Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets began February 28, 2026, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel—starting March 1—and US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia by March 31. Over 400 Iranian attack waves targeted Israel alone by late March, breaching defenses in areas like Tel Aviv and northern regions, though most were intercepted. Escalation continued post-deadline with Iranian salvos on April 2-3 hitting Israeli cities and Gulf oil infrastructure, while US-Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile capabilities. Traders weigh Iran's depleted arsenal, proxy involvement via Houthis and Hezbollah, and diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt amid oil disruptions and global calls for de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions