Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?

Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?

Mar 31

Mar 31

OpenAI 99.5%

Google <1%

Anthropic <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$487,181 Vol.

OpenAI 99.5%

Google <1%

Anthropic <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$487,181 Vol.

Market icon

OpenAI

$64,989 Vol.

100%

Market icon

Google

$130,128 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Anthropic

$60,924 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$24,738 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$76,995 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$31,587 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

xAI

$66,783 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$31,038 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Thinking xHigh Effort model commands a dominant 94.15% score on LiveBench's Mathematics Average leaderboard—the key resolution criterion for this market—more than three points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 91.04% and other OpenAI variants, driving the 99.5% trader consensus implied probability. This positioning stems from GPT-5.4's recent March release, which shattered records on rigorous math benchmarks like FrontierMath Tier 4 (38% solve rate on research-level problems) and MATH-500 (near-99%), outpacing rivals amid a competitive AI landscape featuring Anthropic's Claude 4.x and xAI's Grok. With resolution imminent on March 31, upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise model drop from Google or DeepSeek topping evals overnight, or an unexpected LiveBench refresh elevating a challenger, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.

OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Thinking xHigh Effort model commands a dominant 94.15% score on LiveBench's Mathematics Average leaderboard—the key resolution criterion for this market—more than three points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 91.04% and other OpenAI variants, driving the 99.5% trader consensus implied probability. This positioning stems from GPT-5.4's recent March release, which shattered records on rigorous math benchmarks like FrontierMath Tier 4 (38% solve rate on research-level problems) and MATH-500 (near-99%), outpacing rivals amid a competitive AI landscape featuring Anthropic's Claude 4.x and xAI's Grok. With resolution imminent on March 31, upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise model drop from Google or DeepSeek topping evals overnight, or an unexpected LiveBench refresh elevating a challenger, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Thinking xHigh Effort model commands a dominant 94.15% score on LiveBench's Mathematics Average leaderboard—the key resolution criterion for this market—more than three points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 91.04% and other OpenAI variants, driving the 99.5% trader consensus implied probability. This positioning stems from GPT-5.4's recent March release, which shattered records on rigorous math benchmarks like FrontierMath Tier 4 (38% solve rate on research-level problems) and MATH-500 (near-99%), outpacing rivals amid a competitive AI landscape featuring Anthropic's Claude 4.x and xAI's Grok. With resolution imminent on March 31, upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise model drop from Google or DeepSeek topping evals overnight, or an unexpected LiveBench refresh elevating a challenger, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.

OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Thinking xHigh Effort model commands a dominant 94.15% score on LiveBench's Mathematics Average leaderboard—the key resolution criterion for this market—more than three points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 91.04% and other OpenAI variants, driving the 99.5% trader consensus implied probability. This positioning stems from GPT-5.4's recent March release, which shattered records on rigorous math benchmarks like FrontierMath Tier 4 (38% solve rate on research-level problems) and MATH-500 (near-99%), outpacing rivals amid a competitive AI landscape featuring Anthropic's Claude 4.x and xAI's Grok. With resolution imminent on March 31, upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise model drop from Google or DeepSeek topping evals overnight, or an unexpected LiveBench refresh elevating a challenger, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 100%, followed by "Google" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?" has generated $487.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?" is "OpenAI" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.