Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google (98.5% implied probability) as the company with the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the top spot, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 after a recent surge fueled by strong coding and reasoning benchmarks, and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro ranks #3 with solid multimodal capabilities and a 1M+ token context window. This positioning reflects aggregated user votes from millions of blind pairwise comparisons, underscoring Gemini's competitive edge in long-context tasks amid minimal shifts in the final days before resolution. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from xAI's Grok or OpenAI/Anthropic vote dilution, though leaderboard stability and proximity to deadline make upsets improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o terceiro melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Qual empresa tem o terceiro melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Google 98.5%
xAI 1.5%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$517,116 Vol.
$517,116 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
99%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 98.5%
xAI 1.5%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$517,116 Vol.
$517,116 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$48,676 Vol.
99%
xAI
$34,906 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$33,968 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$51,565 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$96,939 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$42,980 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$78,503 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$50,997 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$26,838 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google (98.5% implied probability) as the company with the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the top spot, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 after a recent surge fueled by strong coding and reasoning benchmarks, and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro ranks #3 with solid multimodal capabilities and a 1M+ token context window. This positioning reflects aggregated user votes from millions of blind pairwise comparisons, underscoring Gemini's competitive edge in long-context tasks amid minimal shifts in the final days before resolution. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from xAI's Grok or OpenAI/Anthropic vote dilution, though leaderboard stability and proximity to deadline make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$517,116Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google (98.5% implied probability) as the company with the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the top spot, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 after a recent surge fueled by strong coding and reasoning benchmarks, and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro ranks #3 with solid multimodal capabilities and a 1M+ token context window. This positioning reflects aggregated user votes from millions of blind pairwise comparisons, underscoring Gemini's competitive edge in long-context tasks amid minimal shifts in the final days before resolution. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from xAI's Grok or OpenAI/Anthropic vote dilution, though leaderboard stability and proximity to deadline make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$517,116Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google (98.5% implied probability) as the company with the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the top spot, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 after a recent surge fueled by strong coding and reasoning benchmarks, and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro ranks #3 with solid multimodal capabilities and a 1M+ token context window. This positioning reflects aggregated user votes from millions of blind pairwise comparisons, underscoring Gemini's competitive edge in long-context tasks amid minimal shifts in the final days before resolution. Realistic challenges include a surprise late-March model release from xAI's Grok or OpenAI/Anthropic vote dilution, though leaderboard stability and proximity to deadline make upsets improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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