Polymarket traders price South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation around 3.8-4.1% (44.4% implied probability) as the consensus outcome, closely tracking the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) revised March forecast of a 3.7% yearly average—up from 3.3% previously—driven by higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel) and commodity shocks from Middle East tensions. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with the 3% target and supporting lower bins like 3.2-3.5% (34.4%), while >5.0% odds at 33.1% reflect upside risks from persistent oil spikes, rand depreciation, and electricity tariffs. SARB’s repo rate hold at 6.75% signals caution, with March CPI data due mid-April as the next catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoInflação Anual da África do Sul 2026
Inflação Anual da África do Sul 2026
3,8-4,1% 43.3%
4,7-5,0% 39%
2,6-2,9% 8.9%
3,5-3,8% 7.1%
$19,704 Vol.
$19,704 Vol.
20 jan 2027
<2,6%
3%
2,6-2,9%
10%
2,9-3,2%
12%
3,2-3,5%
34%
3,5-3,8%
20%
3,8-4,1%
43%
4,1-4,4%
20%
4,4-4,7%
30%
4,7-5,0%
28%
>5,0%
32%
3,8-4,1% 43.3%
4,7-5,0% 39%
2,6-2,9% 8.9%
3,5-3,8% 7.1%
$19,704 Vol.
$19,704 Vol.
20 jan 2027
<2,6%
$0 Vol.
3%
2,6-2,9%
$0 Vol.
10%
2,9-3,2%
$0 Vol.
12%
3,2-3,5%
$0 Vol.
34%
3,5-3,8%
$428 Vol.
20%
3,8-4,1%
$633 Vol.
43%
4,1-4,4%
$458 Vol.
20%
4,4-4,7%
$12,063 Vol.
30%
4,7-5,0%
$318 Vol.
28%
>5,0%
$5,804 Vol.
32%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders price South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation around 3.8-4.1% (44.4% implied probability) as the consensus outcome, closely tracking the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) revised March forecast of a 3.7% yearly average—up from 3.3% previously—driven by higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel) and commodity shocks from Middle East tensions. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with the 3% target and supporting lower bins like 3.2-3.5% (34.4%), while >5.0% odds at 33.1% reflect upside risks from persistent oil spikes, rand depreciation, and electricity tariffs. SARB’s repo rate hold at 6.75% signals caution, with March CPI data due mid-April as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Mercado Aberto: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$19,704Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders price South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation around 3.8-4.1% (44.4% implied probability) as the consensus outcome, closely tracking the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) revised March forecast of a 3.7% yearly average—up from 3.3% previously—driven by higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel) and commodity shocks from Middle East tensions. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with the 3% target and supporting lower bins like 3.2-3.5% (34.4%), while >5.0% odds at 33.1% reflect upside risks from persistent oil spikes, rand depreciation, and electricity tariffs. SARB’s repo rate hold at 6.75% signals caution, with March CPI data due mid-April as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$19,704Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation around 3.8-4.1% (44.4% implied probability) as the consensus outcome, closely tracking the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) revised March forecast of a 3.7% yearly average—up from 3.3% previously—driven by higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel) and commodity shocks from Middle East tensions. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with the 3% target and supporting lower bins like 3.2-3.5% (34.4%), while >5.0% odds at 33.1% reflect upside risks from persistent oil spikes, rand depreciation, and electricity tariffs. SARB’s repo rate hold at 6.75% signals caution, with March CPI data due mid-April as the next catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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