Market icon

Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?

Market icon

Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?

$104,349 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$104,349 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de junho de 2026

$68,515 Vol.

5%

31 de dezembro de 2026

$35,834 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 5% chance of Pedro Sánchez ceasing to serve as Spain's Prime Minister by June 30, 2026, and 23% by December 31, driven by persistent corruption scandals involving PSOE ministers, his wife, and brother under investigation for influence peddling and tax evasion, plus recent regional election losses like Aragon in February. However, Sánchez's minority coalition with Sumar and regionalist parties like ERC holds firm, ruling out snap elections despite opposition demands from PP and Vox for a no-confidence vote, which lacks the 176-seat majority. His March anti-war stance against U.S. actions in Iran has drawn global attention but no domestic fracture, with general elections due by mid-2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$104,349
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 5% chance of Pedro Sánchez ceasing to serve as Spain's Prime Minister by June 30, 2026, and 23% by December 31, driven by persistent corruption scandals involving PSOE ministers, his wife, and brother under investigation for influence peddling and tax evasion, plus recent regional election losses like Aragon in February. However, Sánchez's minority coalition with Sumar and regionalist parties like ERC holds firm, ruling out snap elections despite opposition demands from PP and Vox for a no-confidence vote, which lacks the 176-seat majority. His March anti-war stance against U.S. actions in Iran has drawn global attention but no domestic fracture, with general elections due by mid-2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$104,349
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 23%, followed by "30 de junho de 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?" has generated $104.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?" is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de junho de 2026" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pedro Sánchez como primeiro-ministro da Espanha por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.