Market icon
Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21

Market icon
Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Partido Republicano

$6,066 Vol.

75%

Partido Democrata

$3,720 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.

The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.

The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Republicano" at 75%, followed by "Partido Democrata" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21" is "Partido Republicano" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido Democrata" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.