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Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29

icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29
Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29

$15,477 Vol.

Polymarket

$15,477 Vol.

Partido Democrata

$10,326 Vol.

93%

Partido Republicano

$5,151 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) holds a commanding lead in California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic San Fernando Valley seat with a D+19 partisan voting index and 65% support for Kamala Harris in 2024, fueling trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Rivas, first elected in 2024 with 69.8% of the vote, boasts strong fundraising ($434,000 cash on hand as of March 31) and endorsements from retiring predecessor Tony Cárdenas, dwarfing challengers like Angélica María Dueñas (D) and Rudy Melendez (R), who reports no funds. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; ratings from Cook Political Report and others remain Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require a primary surprise advancing a well-funded GOP contender, a Rivas scandal, or national midterm wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,477
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas (D) holds a commanding lead in California's 29th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic San Fernando Valley seat with a D+19 partisan voting index and 65% support for Kamala Harris in 2024, fueling trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Rivas, first elected in 2024 with 69.8% of the vote, boasts strong fundraising ($434,000 cash on hand as of March 31) and endorsements from retiring predecessor Tony Cárdenas, dwarfing challengers like Angélica María Dueñas (D) and Rudy Melendez (R), who reports no funds. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; ratings from Cook Political Report and others remain Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require a primary surprise advancing a well-funded GOP contender, a Rivas scandal, or national midterm wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,477
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Democrata" at 93%, followed by "Partido Republicano" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29" has generated $15.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29" is "Partido Democrata" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido Republicano" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.