Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the NY-18 House race stems from his decisive 14-point reelection win in 2024, overperforming in a district Kamala Harris carried by just three points, underscoring strong local incumbency advantage and voter loyalty in the Hudson Valley battleground. With primaries on June 23 still months away, no polls have emerged, but the lone announced Republican challenger, Sharanjit Thind, has yet to gain traction, reinforcing Democratic dominance per skin-in-the-game pricing. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP primary winner, Ryan scandal, or midterm backlash against the Democratic minority status, though historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats suggest resilience.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$30,200 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the NY-18 House race stems from his decisive 14-point reelection win in 2024, overperforming in a district Kamala Harris carried by just three points, underscoring strong local incumbency advantage and voter loyalty in the Hudson Valley battleground. With primaries on June 23 still months away, no polls have emerged, but the lone announced Republican challenger, Sharanjit Thind, has yet to gain traction, reinforcing Democratic dominance per skin-in-the-game pricing. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP primary winner, Ryan scandal, or midterm backlash against the Democratic minority status, though historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats suggest resilience.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$30,200Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the NY-18 House race stems from his decisive 14-point reelection win in 2024, overperforming in a district Kamala Harris carried by just three points, underscoring strong local incumbency advantage and voter loyalty in the Hudson Valley battleground. With primaries on June 23 still months away, no polls have emerged, but the lone announced Republican challenger, Sharanjit Thind, has yet to gain traction, reinforcing Democratic dominance per skin-in-the-game pricing. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP primary winner, Ryan scandal, or midterm backlash against the Democratic minority status, though historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats suggest resilience.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,200Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the NY-18 House race stems from his decisive 14-point reelection win in 2024, overperforming in a district Kamala Harris carried by just three points, underscoring strong local incumbency advantage and voter loyalty in the Hudson Valley battleground. With primaries on June 23 still months away, no polls have emerged, but the lone announced Republican challenger, Sharanjit Thind, has yet to gain traction, reinforcing Democratic dominance per skin-in-the-game pricing. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP primary winner, Ryan scandal, or midterm backlash against the Democratic minority status, though historical incumbent reelection rates above 90% in similar seats suggest resilience.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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