Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability to win Michigan's 7th Congressional District House seat, a Cook Political Report-rated Toss Up with an even partisan voting index where freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett won narrowly in 2024 by 4 points after Democrat Elissa Slotkin held it previously. This reflects historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party, which has lost an average of 26 House seats since 1950, compounded by robust Democratic recruitment including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink—bolstered by March endorsements from ex-House Speaker Joe Tate and state Reps. Noah Arbit and Jennifer Conlin—ahead of the August 4 primaries. Competitive fundraising, with Barrett leading cash-on-hand but Democrats closing the gap, highlights key battleground factors like swing voter turnout and national environment that could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa MI-07
Vencedor da eleição da casa MI-07
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Partido Democrata
86%
Partido Republicano
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Partido Democrata
$944 Vol.
86%
Partido Republicano
$342 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability to win Michigan's 7th Congressional District House seat, a Cook Political Report-rated Toss Up with an even partisan voting index where freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett won narrowly in 2024 by 4 points after Democrat Elissa Slotkin held it previously. This reflects historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party, which has lost an average of 26 House seats since 1950, compounded by robust Democratic recruitment including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink—bolstered by March endorsements from ex-House Speaker Joe Tate and state Reps. Noah Arbit and Jennifer Conlin—ahead of the August 4 primaries. Competitive fundraising, with Barrett leading cash-on-hand but Democrats closing the gap, highlights key battleground factors like swing voter turnout and national environment that could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,286Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability to win Michigan's 7th Congressional District House seat, a Cook Political Report-rated Toss Up with an even partisan voting index where freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett won narrowly in 2024 by 4 points after Democrat Elissa Slotkin held it previously. This reflects historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party, which has lost an average of 26 House seats since 1950, compounded by robust Democratic recruitment including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink—bolstered by March endorsements from ex-House Speaker Joe Tate and state Reps. Noah Arbit and Jennifer Conlin—ahead of the August 4 primaries. Competitive fundraising, with Barrett leading cash-on-hand but Democrats closing the gap, highlights key battleground factors like swing voter turnout and national environment that could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,286Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 86% implied probability to win Michigan's 7th Congressional District House seat, a Cook Political Report-rated Toss Up with an even partisan voting index where freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett won narrowly in 2024 by 4 points after Democrat Elissa Slotkin held it previously. This reflects historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party, which has lost an average of 26 House seats since 1950, compounded by robust Democratic recruitment including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink—bolstered by March endorsements from ex-House Speaker Joe Tate and state Reps. Noah Arbit and Jennifer Conlin—ahead of the August 4 primaries. Competitive fundraising, with Barrett leading cash-on-hand but Democrats closing the gap, highlights key battleground factors like swing voter turnout and national environment that could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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