The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$51,379 Vol.
$51,379 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$51,379 Vol.
$51,379 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$36,734 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,645 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$51,379Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$51,379Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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