US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains roughly nine to twelve months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities during the ongoing 2026 conflict, including damage to Natanz's aboveground structures but limited impact on underground enrichment capabilities. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran holds about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple warheads if further processed—but highlight restricted access to sites like Isfahan and no verified weaponization activities. Tehran's envoy stated in April that Iran is not restarting high-level enrichment, amid diplomatic pressures and sanctions. With seven months until 2027, traders price in significant barriers like military disruptions and verification hurdles, implying low odds of a testable device beforehand.