Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, have prompted repeated Iranian missile barrages against Israeli military bases and US-allied sites in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain since late February 2026, with the latest Israeli airstrikes occurring March 27 and US troops wounded in a recent Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Tehran vows further retaliation amid depleted missile stockpiles, while reviewing a US proposal to end hostilities; President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated power plant strikes. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent tit-for-tat escalation risks through April 30, amid diplomatic talks and military limitations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$88,045 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
93%
Kuwait
91%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Oman
21%
Syria
28%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
5%
Georgia
4%
Poland
4%
Germany
4%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Spain
2%
Ukraine
2%
Armenia
2%
$88,045 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,656 Vol.
97%
UAE
$544 Vol.
93%
Kuwait
$823 Vol.
91%
Qatar
$276 Vol.
60%
Iraq
$235 Vol.
42%
Lebanon
$795 Vol.
31%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
21%
Oman
$434 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
28%
Azerbaijan
$523 Vol.
10%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,583 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,285 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,213 Vol.
4%
Italy
$100 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$3,176 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, have prompted repeated Iranian missile barrages against Israeli military bases and US-allied sites in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain since late February 2026, with the latest Israeli airstrikes occurring March 27 and US troops wounded in a recent Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Tehran vows further retaliation amid depleted missile stockpiles, while reviewing a US proposal to end hostilities; President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated power plant strikes. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent tit-for-tat escalation risks through April 30, amid diplomatic talks and military limitations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$88,045Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, have prompted repeated Iranian missile barrages against Israeli military bases and US-allied sites in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain since late February 2026, with the latest Israeli airstrikes occurring March 27 and US troops wounded in a recent Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Tehran vows further retaliation amid depleted missile stockpiles, while reviewing a US proposal to end hostilities; President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated power plant strikes. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent tit-for-tat escalation risks through April 30, amid diplomatic talks and military limitations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$88,045Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, have prompted repeated Iranian missile barrages against Israeli military bases and US-allied sites in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain since late February 2026, with the latest Israeli airstrikes occurring March 27 and US troops wounded in a recent Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Tehran vows further retaliation amid depleted missile stockpiles, while reviewing a US proposal to end hostilities; President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated power plant strikes. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent tit-for-tat escalation risks through April 30, amid diplomatic talks and military limitations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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