Market icon
Tecnologia·Tesla

Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Tesla

Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

mar 31

mar 31

350k–375k 84%

375k–400k 10.4%

<350k 7%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$835,125 Vol.

350k–375k 84%

375k–400k 10.4%

<350k 7%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$835,125 Vol.

<350k

$275,893 Vol.

7%

350k–375k

$156,922 Vol.

84%

375k–400k

$62,277 Vol.

10%

400k–425k

$38,802 Vol.

<1%

425k–450k

$59,297 Vol.

<1%

450k–475k

$168,795 Vol.

<1%

475k–500k

$45,517 Vol.

<1%

500 mil+

$27,624 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's release of its Q1 2026 delivery consensus on March 26—aggregating 23 analysts at 365,645 vehicles, with Model 3/Y at 351,179 and others at 13,946—has driven an 83.5% market-implied probability for 350k–375k deliveries, reflecting trader alignment with this skin-in-the-game benchmark amid seasonal Q1 softness from Q4 2025's 418k. The figure signals 8.6% year-over-year growth from Q1 2025's 337k, bolstered by steady production ramps at Giga factories despite Model Y changeovers, though softening EV demand and competition cap upside. A 10.4% chance on 375k–400k anticipates a potential beat per trackers like Troy Teslike, while sub-350k odds remain low at 7%. Official numbers due early this week could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$835,125
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's release of its Q1 2026 delivery consensus on March 26—aggregating 23 analysts at 365,645 vehicles, with Model 3/Y at 351,179 and others at 13,946—has driven an 83.5% market-implied probability for 350k–375k deliveries, reflecting trader alignment with this skin-in-the-game benchmark amid seasonal Q1 softness from Q4 2025's 418k. The figure signals 8.6% year-over-year growth from Q1 2025's 337k, bolstered by steady production ramps at Giga factories despite Model Y changeovers, though softening EV demand and competition cap upside. A 10.4% chance on 375k–400k anticipates a potential beat per trackers like Troy Teslike, while sub-350k odds remain low at 7%. Official numbers due early this week could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$835,125
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "350k–375k" at 84%, followed by "375k–400k" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" has generated $835.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is "350k–375k" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "375k–400k" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantas entregas Tesla no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.