Market icon
Clima E Ciência·SpaceX

Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·SpaceX

Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

<5 39%

5-6 39%

7-8 15%

9-10 6.3%

Polymarket

$340,181 Vol.

<5 39%

5-6 39%

7-8 15%

9-10 6.3%

Polymarket

$340,181 Vol.

<5

$70,391 Vol.

39%

5-6

$80,522 Vol.

39%

7-8

$150,847 Vol.

15%

9-10

$0 Vol.

6%

11-12

$2,936 Vol.

5%

13-14

$3,647 Vol.

2%

15-16

$23,563 Vol.

1%

>16

$8,275 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Starship Flight Test 5's pioneering Super Heavy booster catch on October 13 has fueled trader optimism for accelerated reusability, tightening market-implied odds to a near deadlock between <5 launches (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) reaching space—defined as crossing the Karman line—in 2026. FAA closure of the mishap investigation and approval for Flight Test 6 underscore regulatory progress, yet persistent licensing bottlenecks, Raptor engine production ramps, and historical delays in SpaceX's ambitious timelines temper expectations for higher cadences. Competitive dynamics favor SpaceX's vertical integration monopoly, but scaling to dozens of flights hinges on 2025 test successes and manufacturing throughput; watch Q1 2025 orbital milestones to break the deadlock.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$340,181
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Starship Flight Test 5's pioneering Super Heavy booster catch on October 13 has fueled trader optimism for accelerated reusability, tightening market-implied odds to a near deadlock between <5 launches (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) reaching space—defined as crossing the Karman line—in 2026. FAA closure of the mishap investigation and approval for Flight Test 6 underscore regulatory progress, yet persistent licensing bottlenecks, Raptor engine production ramps, and historical delays in SpaceX's ambitious timelines temper expectations for higher cadences. Competitive dynamics favor SpaceX's vertical integration monopoly, but scaling to dozens of flights hinges on 2025 test successes and manufacturing throughput; watch Q1 2025 orbital milestones to break the deadlock.

Recent Starship Flight Test 5's pioneering Super Heavy booster catch on October 13 has fueled trader optimism for accelerated reusability, tightening market-implied odds to a near deadlock between <5 launches (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) reaching space—defined as crossing the Karman line—in 2026. FAA closure of the mishap investigation and approval for Flight Test 6 underscore regulatory progress, yet persistent licensing bottlenecks, Raptor engine production ramps, and historical delays in SpaceX's ambitious timelines temper expectations for higher cadences. Competitive dynamics favor SpaceX's vertical integration monopoly, but scaling to dozens of flights hinges on 2025 test successes and manufacturing throughput; watch Q1 2025 orbital milestones to break the deadlock.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<5" at 39%, followed by "5-6" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" has generated $340.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" is "<5" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.