Market icon
Geopolítica·Óleo

Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Óleo

Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?

$65,961 Vol.

Apr 15, 2026
Polymarket

$65,961 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$52,673 Vol.

10%

15 de abril

$4,986 Vol.

35%

April 30

$8,301 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Houthi drone and missile strikes on Red Sea shipping lanes, including a claimed hit on the MV Huang Pu on September 25, continue to drive elevated war risk premiums and freight rate surges, with Asia-Europe container spot rates nearly quadrupling year-over-year per Drewry's World Container Index to over $4,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit. Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days and $1 million+ in fuel costs per voyage, squeezing shipping firms' margins and inflating global supply chain expenses amid 12% of trade volume affected. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained disruption risks despite U.S.-led airstrikes, with upcoming Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and Q3 earnings from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd as key catalysts that could shift risk premia.

Persistent Houthi drone and missile strikes on Red Sea shipping lanes, including a claimed hit on the MV Huang Pu on September 25, continue to drive elevated war risk premiums and freight rate surges, with Asia-Europe container spot rates nearly quadrupling year-over-year per Drewry's World Container Index to over $4,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit. Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days and $1 million+ in fuel costs per voyage, squeezing shipping firms' margins and inflating global supply chain expenses amid 12% of trade volume affected. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained disruption risks despite U.S.-led airstrikes, with upcoming Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and Q3 earnings from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd as key catalysts that could shift risk premia.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Houthi drone and missile strikes on Red Sea shipping lanes, including a claimed hit on the MV Huang Pu on September 25, continue to drive elevated war risk premiums and freight rate surges, with Asia-Europe container spot rates nearly quadrupling year-over-year per Drewry's World Container Index to over $4,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit. Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days and $1 million+ in fuel costs per voyage, squeezing shipping firms' margins and inflating global supply chain expenses amid 12% of trade volume affected. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained disruption risks despite U.S.-led airstrikes, with upcoming Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and Q3 earnings from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd as key catalysts that could shift risk premia.

Persistent Houthi drone and missile strikes on Red Sea shipping lanes, including a claimed hit on the MV Huang Pu on September 25, continue to drive elevated war risk premiums and freight rate surges, with Asia-Europe container spot rates nearly quadrupling year-over-year per Drewry's World Container Index to over $4,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit. Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days and $1 million+ in fuel costs per voyage, squeezing shipping firms' margins and inflating global supply chain expenses amid 12% of trade volume affected. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained disruption risks despite U.S.-led airstrikes, with upcoming Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and Q3 earnings from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd as key catalysts that could shift risk premia.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 51%, followed by "15 de abril" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?" has generated $66K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?" is "April 30" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15 de abril" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os houthis visam com sucesso o envio até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.