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Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

18°C 42%

17°C 34%

19°C 15%

16°C 9.3%

Polymarket

$76,907 Vol.

18°C 42%

17°C 34%

19°C 15%

16°C 9.3%

Polymarket

$76,907 Vol.

12°C

$13,506 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$8,027 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$8,174 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$5,128 Vol.

1%

16°C

$5,601 Vol.

9%

17°C

$4,063 Vol.

34%

18°C

$3,617 Vol.

42%

19°C

$3,669 Vol.

15%

20°C

$4,311 Vol.

3%

21°C or higher

$4,317 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's 09:00 forecast on March 28 projects Tokyo's high temperature at 19°C under cloudy skies occasionally clearing, with 20% precipitation odds in the afternoon, positioning 18°C as traders' leading consensus at implied 40.5% probability amid partial cloud moderation potentially capping peaks below model guidance. This reflects a sharp warmup from March 26-27 highs of 13-14°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge and March's above-normal temperatures—evidenced by cherry blossoms reaching full bloom around March 28, far ahead of climatological norms (daily max ~16.5°C). Forecast ensembles show convergence on upper teens, but urban sea breezes and cloud variability introduce uncertainty; watch JMA's 17:00 update and real-time observations for shifts as the resolution window closes.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's 09:00 forecast on March 28 projects Tokyo's high temperature at 19°C under cloudy skies occasionally clearing, with 20% precipitation odds in the afternoon, positioning 18°C as traders' leading consensus at implied 40.5% probability amid partial cloud moderation potentially capping peaks below model guidance. This reflects a sharp warmup from March 26-27 highs of 13-14°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge and March's above-normal temperatures—evidenced by cherry blossoms reaching full bloom around March 28, far ahead of climatological norms (daily max ~16.5°C). Forecast ensembles show convergence on upper teens, but urban sea breezes and cloud variability introduce uncertainty; watch JMA's 17:00 update and real-time observations for shifts as the resolution window closes.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's 09:00 forecast on March 28 projects Tokyo's high temperature at 19°C under cloudy skies occasionally clearing, with 20% precipitation odds in the afternoon, positioning 18°C as traders' leading consensus at implied 40.5% probability amid partial cloud moderation potentially capping peaks below model guidance. This reflects a sharp warmup from March 26-27 highs of 13-14°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge and March's above-normal temperatures—evidenced by cherry blossoms reaching full bloom around March 28, far ahead of climatological norms (daily max ~16.5°C). Forecast ensembles show convergence on upper teens, but urban sea breezes and cloud variability introduce uncertainty; watch JMA's 17:00 update and real-time observations for shifts as the resolution window closes.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's 09:00 forecast on March 28 projects Tokyo's high temperature at 19°C under cloudy skies occasionally clearing, with 20% precipitation odds in the afternoon, positioning 18°C as traders' leading consensus at implied 40.5% probability amid partial cloud moderation potentially capping peaks below model guidance. This reflects a sharp warmup from March 26-27 highs of 13-14°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge and March's above-normal temperatures—evidenced by cherry blossoms reaching full bloom around March 28, far ahead of climatological norms (daily max ~16.5°C). Forecast ensembles show convergence on upper teens, but urban sea breezes and cloud variability introduce uncertainty; watch JMA's 17:00 update and real-time observations for shifts as the resolution window closes.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "18°C" at 42%, followed by "17°C" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" has generated $76.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is "18°C" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17°C" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.