Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tel Aviv high of 23°C at 28% implied probability, driven by Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 22-24°C amid a Mediterranean low-pressure system bringing clouds and scattered showers. Differentiating the tight race among 21-25°C outcomes are local sea breeze dynamics—stronger onshore winds from the cooler Mediterranean cap peaks at 21-22°C (35.5% combined), while transient cloud breaks enable 24-25°C (40.5% combined) via enhanced solar heating. Urban heat island effects add ~1-2°C inland bias, but March historical averages of 21°C and model spread underscore uncertainty ahead of final IMS updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tel Aviv em 28 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Tel Aviv em 28 de março?
23°C 28%
24°C 22%
25°C 19%
21°C 14%
17°C ou menos
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
12%
20°C
14%
21°C
14%
22°C
13%
23°C
28%
24°C
22%
25°C
19%
26°C
9%
27°C ou mais
5%
23°C 28%
24°C 22%
25°C 19%
21°C 14%
17°C ou menos
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
12%
20°C
14%
21°C
14%
22°C
13%
23°C
28%
24°C
22%
25°C
19%
26°C
9%
27°C ou mais
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tel Aviv high of 23°C at 28% implied probability, driven by Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 22-24°C amid a Mediterranean low-pressure system bringing clouds and scattered showers. Differentiating the tight race among 21-25°C outcomes are local sea breeze dynamics—stronger onshore winds from the cooler Mediterranean cap peaks at 21-22°C (35.5% combined), while transient cloud breaks enable 24-25°C (40.5% combined) via enhanced solar heating. Urban heat island effects add ~1-2°C inland bias, but March historical averages of 21°C and model spread underscore uncertainty ahead of final IMS updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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