Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 9, with evenly matched implied probabilities across outcomes from 13°C or below to 23°C or higher, underscoring the challenges of 4-day forecasts in the city's high-elevation (2,240 meters) subtropical highland climate. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports indicate mild conditions persisting into early April 2026, with maximums near 20°C amid cloud cover and occasional northerly winds suppressing daytime heating, following a variable late-March pattern that saw highs up to 29°C before cooling. Divergent GFS and ECMWF model runs project a 4-6°C spread, hinging on whether a developing upper-level ridge enhances solar insolation and boundary layer mixing or if persistent troughing maintains cooler advection. Key differentiators include cloudiness reducing insolation by up to 30%, wind speeds above 10 km/h dispersing heat, and nocturnal inversions trapping cold air—watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z/12Z model updates for catalysts ahead of Benito Juárez Airport observations resolving the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 9?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 9?
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
13°C or below
7%
14°C
7%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C or higher
28%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
14°C
$0 Vol.
7%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C or higher
$6 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 9, with evenly matched implied probabilities across outcomes from 13°C or below to 23°C or higher, underscoring the challenges of 4-day forecasts in the city's high-elevation (2,240 meters) subtropical highland climate. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports indicate mild conditions persisting into early April 2026, with maximums near 20°C amid cloud cover and occasional northerly winds suppressing daytime heating, following a variable late-March pattern that saw highs up to 29°C before cooling. Divergent GFS and ECMWF model runs project a 4-6°C spread, hinging on whether a developing upper-level ridge enhances solar insolation and boundary layer mixing or if persistent troughing maintains cooler advection. Key differentiators include cloudiness reducing insolation by up to 30%, wind speeds above 10 km/h dispersing heat, and nocturnal inversions trapping cold air—watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z/12Z model updates for catalysts ahead of Benito Juárez Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 5, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$6Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 9, with evenly matched implied probabilities across outcomes from 13°C or below to 23°C or higher, underscoring the challenges of 4-day forecasts in the city's high-elevation (2,240 meters) subtropical highland climate. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports indicate mild conditions persisting into early April 2026, with maximums near 20°C amid cloud cover and occasional northerly winds suppressing daytime heating, following a variable late-March pattern that saw highs up to 29°C before cooling. Divergent GFS and ECMWF model runs project a 4-6°C spread, hinging on whether a developing upper-level ridge enhances solar insolation and boundary layer mixing or if persistent troughing maintains cooler advection. Key differentiators include cloudiness reducing insolation by up to 30%, wind speeds above 10 km/h dispersing heat, and nocturnal inversions trapping cold air—watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z/12Z model updates for catalysts ahead of Benito Juárez Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 9, with evenly matched implied probabilities across outcomes from 13°C or below to 23°C or higher, underscoring the challenges of 4-day forecasts in the city's high-elevation (2,240 meters) subtropical highland climate. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports indicate mild conditions persisting into early April 2026, with maximums near 20°C amid cloud cover and occasional northerly winds suppressing daytime heating, following a variable late-March pattern that saw highs up to 29°C before cooling. Divergent GFS and ECMWF model runs project a 4-6°C spread, hinging on whether a developing upper-level ridge enhances solar insolation and boundary layer mixing or if persistent troughing maintains cooler advection. Key differentiators include cloudiness reducing insolation by up to 30%, wind speeds above 10 km/h dispersing heat, and nocturnal inversions trapping cold air—watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z/12Z model updates for catalysts ahead of Benito Juárez Airport observations resolving the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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