Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado640-650b 100.0%
<640b <1%
650-660b <1%
660-670b <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640b
Não
640-650b
Sim
650-660b
Não
660-670b
Não
670-680 bilhões
Não
680-690b
Não
690-700b
Não
700-710b
Não
710b+
Não
640-650b 100.0%
<640b <1%
650-660b <1%
660-670b <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640b
Não
640-650b
Sim
650-660b
Não
660-670b
Não
670-680 bilhões
Não
680-690b
Não
690-700b
Não
700-710b
Não
710b+
Não
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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