Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability that federal charges against journalist Don Lemon will not be dropped, stemming from his alleged role in an anti-ICE protest disrupting a St. Paul, Minnesota church service on January 18, 2026. A magistrate judge initially rejected DOJ charges for lack of probable cause, but a grand jury indicted Lemon and others on civil rights conspiracy counts under laws protecting religious exercise, leading to his February 13 not guilty plea and release without bond. Despite defense arguments citing evidentiary flaws, including contradictory video, and predictions of dismissal, no motions have succeeded amid broader DOJ actions charging dozens more. Recent references to the case persist without resolution updates or trial dates, underscoring procedural hurdles in a politically charged immigration enforcement context.