Surveillance predictions & odds

Politics·Bill

Senate passes Clarity Act by...?

$23.0K Vol.

$24.3K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

October 31

$23.0K Vol.

$24.3K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Politics·Marine Le Pen

Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?

$2.6K Vol.

$9.2K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

11%

$2.6K Vol.

$9.2K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

World·Crime

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

$99.5K Vol.

$8.0K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

38%

October 31

$99.5K Vol.

$8.0K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Politics·Trump

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$82.6K Vol.

$23.2K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$82.6K Vol.

$23.2K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Tech·AI

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

$5.0K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

89%

October 31

$5.0K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Geopolitics·Iran

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

$1M Vol.

$40.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$1M Vol.

$40.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Bill

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

$18.2K Vol.

$4.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$18.2K Vol.

$4.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Tech·AI

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

$3.0K Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

22%

October 15

$3.0K Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Geopolitics·Military Actions

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

$55.4K Vol.

$55.7K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

98%

September 30

$55.4K Vol.

$55.7K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

Tech·AI

Situational Awareness raises new capital by...?

$72.7K Vol.

$729 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

62%

$72.7K Vol.

$729 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Elections·Midterms

League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?

$335 Vol.

$300 Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

54%

$335 Vol.

$300 Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Tech·Bill Gates

Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?

$2.8K Vol.

$4.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$2.8K Vol.

$4.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Tech·AI

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

$53.1K Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

16%

$53.1K Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Red Sea

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

$6.8K Vol.

$187 Liq.

Ends in 13 days

31%

$6.8K Vol.

$187 Liq.

Ends in 13 days

Tech·AI

US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

$5.0K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$5.0K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Box

Epstein storage units raided in 2026?

$13.4K Vol.

$13.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$13.4K Vol.

$13.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Podcast

Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?

$1.1K Vol.

$979 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

11%

$1.1K Vol.

$979 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Tech·AI

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

$51.1K Vol.

$34.2K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

28%

Microsoft

$51.1K Vol.

$34.2K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Tech·AI

SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

$4.2K Vol.

$126 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

14%

$4.2K Vol.

$126 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?

$72.6K Vol.

$471 Liq.

Ends in 13 days

$72.6K Vol.

$471 Liq.

Ends in 13 days

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Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Surveillance.

Polymarket currently hosts 500 active markets for Surveillance that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Senate passes Clarity Act by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $1.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Situational Awareness raises new capital by...?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran invades Kuwait by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran invades Kuwait by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 8% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Surveillance predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Surveillance shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “Iran invades Kuwait by...?” without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Surveillance prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Senate passes Clarity Act by...?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Surveillance prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Surveillance predictions & odds

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of Surveillance prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Surveillance markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Surveillance prediction?

Why use Polymarket for Surveillance predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s Surveillance odds?

Can I track Surveillance predictions without trading?

How do I get started with Surveillance markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of Surveillance prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Surveillance markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Surveillance prediction?

Why use Polymarket for Surveillance predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s Surveillance odds?

Can I track Surveillance predictions without trading?

How do I get started with Surveillance markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

Surveillance predictions & odds