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Senates predictions & odds

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

56%

Democratic Party

$2M Vol.

$65.5K today

$297K Liq.

35

Ends in 7 months

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

85%

Democratic Party

$5M Vol.

$441K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

1%

$88.1K Vol.

$33.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 28 days

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

81%

$2.4K Vol.

$15.1K Liq.

2

Ends in 7 months

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

10%

$5.1K Vol.

$15.0K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

64%

7

$72.8K Vol.

$87.6K Liq.

5

Ends in 5 months

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

70%

0

$3.8K Vol.

$30.8K Liq.

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

50%

2

$3.7K Vol.

$17.0K Liq.

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in March?

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in March?

90%

4

$29.8K Vol.

$10.2K Liq.

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?

34%

7+

$14.1K Vol.

$24.5K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

73%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$108K Vol.

$56.3K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

35%

2.1–2.4M

$40.7K Vol.

$14.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

28%

Paxton 9%+

$53.8K Vol.

$93.8K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Next Senate Majority Leader?

30%

Chuck Schumer

$33.4K Vol.

$110K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

24%

$112K Vol.

$14.3K Liq.

8

Ends in 9 months

Peru Senate Election Winner

Peru Senate Election Winner

97%

FP

$77.5K Vol.

$50.2K Liq.

4

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

80%

PL

$249K Vol.

$71.6K Liq.

7

Ends in 6 months

# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

97%

24-26

$122K Vol.

$23.9K Liq.

1

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

73%

PL

$7.0K Vol.

$83.5K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?

Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?

2%

$39.6K Vol.

$62.9K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Senates.

Polymarket currently hosts 150 active markets for Senates that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $7.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Which party will win the House in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Which party will win the House in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 85% chance to Democratic Party. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Senates predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.