Business predictions & odds

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Largest Company end of January?

Business

Largest Company end of January?

$6m Vol.

$373k today

$550k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

94%

NVIDIA

$6m Vol.

$373k today

$550k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$3m Vol.

$128k today

$1m Liq.

26

Ends in 12 months

27%

3 (75 bps)

$3m Vol.

$128k today

$1m Liq.

26

Ends in 12 months

Largest Company end of March?

Business

Largest Company end of March?

$781k Vol.

$114k today

$231k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

70%

NVIDIA

$781k Vol.

$114k today

$231k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

2nd Largest company end of January?

Business

2nd Largest company end of January?

$2m Vol.

$72.4k today

$181k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

87%

Alphabet

$2m Vol.

$72.4k today

$181k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?

Business

Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?

$1m Vol.

$72.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

42%

40%+

$1m Vol.

$72.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

Business

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

$19m Vol.

$138k Liq.

210

24%

December 31, 2026

$19m Vol.

$138k Liq.

210

IPOs before 2027?

Business

IPOs before 2027?

$2m Vol.

$81.5k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

92%

Discord

$2m Vol.

$81.5k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

3rd largest company end of January?

Business

3rd largest company end of January?

$442k Vol.

$81.3k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

85%

Apple

$442k Vol.

$81.3k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Largest Company end of June?

Business

Largest Company end of June?

$1m Vol.

$225k Liq.

79

Ends in 6 months

43%

NVIDIA

$1m Vol.

$225k Liq.

79

Ends in 6 months

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Business

Largest Company end of December 2026?

$325k Vol.

$347k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

39%

NVIDIA

$325k Vol.

$347k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

2nd largest company end of March?

Business

2nd largest company end of March?

$86.8k Vol.

$50.0k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

67%

Alphabet

$86.8k Vol.

$50.0k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

Business

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

$563k Vol.

$11.4k Liq.

70

Ends in 17 days

56%

March 31, 2026

$563k Vol.

$11.4k Liq.

70

Ends in 17 days

Which banks will fail by June 30?

Business

Which banks will fail by June 30?

$43.0k Vol.

$68.7k Liq.

5

Ends in 6 months

4%

UBS

$43.0k Vol.

$68.7k Liq.

5

Ends in 6 months

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Business

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$221k Vol.

$19.4k Liq.

13

Ends in 12 months

69%

Dan Clancy - Twitch

$221k Vol.

$19.4k Liq.

13

Ends in 12 months

AI bubble burst by...?

Business

AI bubble burst by...?

$409k Vol.

$18.8k Liq.

53

Ends in 12 months

16%

December 31, 2026

$409k Vol.

$18.8k Liq.

53

Ends in 12 months

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Business

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

$204k Vol.

$15.1k Liq.

6

Ends in 3 months

69%

$204k Vol.

$15.1k Liq.

6

Ends in 3 months

US recession by end of 2026?

Business

US recession by end of 2026?

$144k Vol.

$47.3k Liq.

21

Ends in about 1 year

22%

$144k Vol.

$47.3k Liq.

21

Ends in about 1 year

OpenAI IPO by...?

Business

OpenAI IPO by...?

$897k Vol.

$18.9k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

28%

December 31, 2026

$897k Vol.

$18.9k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Business

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

$299k Vol.

$6.8k Liq.

41

Ends in 12 months

25%

$299k Vol.

$6.8k Liq.

41

Ends in 12 months

US bank failure by January 31?

Business

US bank failure by January 31?

$170k Vol.

$8.8k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

4%

$170k Vol.

$8.8k Liq.

Ends in 17 days

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