Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by retaining FIFA's No. 1 ranking as of March 28 following a dominant UEFA qualifying campaign. England (12.8%) gained momentum from their 5-0 thrashing of Latvia in the March 26 playoff leg, while France (11.1%) impressed with a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 27 despite playing a man down, thanks to goals from Mbappé and Ekitiké. Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive amid squad depth, though sidelined by Rodrygo's ACL tear and Foyth's Achilles injury; this parity among European and South American powerhouses, with intercontinental playoffs wrapping up (e.g., Bolivia's 2-1 win over Suriname), keeps the race tightly contested ahead of the expanded 48-team tournament.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,865,512 Vol.
$415,865,512 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,865,512 Vol.
$415,865,512 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by retaining FIFA's No. 1 ranking as of March 28 following a dominant UEFA qualifying campaign. England (12.8%) gained momentum from their 5-0 thrashing of Latvia in the March 26 playoff leg, while France (11.1%) impressed with a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 27 despite playing a man down, thanks to goals from Mbappé and Ekitiké. Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive amid squad depth, though sidelined by Rodrygo's ACL tear and Foyth's Achilles injury; this parity among European and South American powerhouses, with intercontinental playoffs wrapping up (e.g., Bolivia's 2-1 win over Suriname), keeps the race tightly contested ahead of the expanded 48-team tournament.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions