How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?

Mar 22

Mar 29

Mar 22

Mar 29

2 92.8%

3 6.3%

4 <1%

0 <1%

$273,357 Vol.

Mar 22, 2026

$77,689 Vol.

<1%

$33,766 Vol.

<1%

$37,212 Vol.

93%

$58,193 Vol.

$31,490 Vol.

<1%

$13,323 Vol.

<1%

$21,698 Vol.

<1%

2 92.8%

3 6.3%

4 <1%

0 <1%

$273,357 Vol.

Mar 22, 2026

$77,689 Vol.

<1%

$33,766 Vol.

<1%

$37,212 Vol.

93%

$58,193 Vol.

$31,490 Vol.

<1%

$13,323 Vol.

<1%

$21,698 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Traders overwhelmingly back exactly two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring between March 16-22 (93% implied probability), driven by USGS confirmed data logging precisely two events so far—a M7.4 off Japan on March 17 and a M6.9 near Vanuatu on March 20—with the monitoring window closing soon and just hours left. Global seismicity baselines from USGS catalogs average 1-2 such quakes weekly, supporting low odds for more absent unusual activity like aftershock sequences. A challenge would require a rare seismic swarm or undetected precursor in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, though current models from authoritative monitors show no such signals.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 10:49 AM UTC

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

33%

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 93%, followed by "3" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" has generated $273.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" is "2" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $273.4K traded on “How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 93¢ for "2" in the "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 93% chance that "2" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 93¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 7¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?" market has an active community of 300 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 16 - March 22?

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Comments (300)

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Frequently Asked Questions

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