Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

1,588

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

$233,228 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

1500

$34,873 Vol.

99%

1550

$37,093 Vol.

97%

1575

$938 Vol.

72%

1600

$100,431 Vol.

31%

1625

$1,515 Vol.

12%

1650

$41,310 Vol.

1700

$17,067 Vol.

$233,228 Vol.

1500

$34,873 Vol.

99%

1550

$37,093 Vol.

97%

1575

$938 Vol.

72%

1600

$100,431 Vol.

31%

1625

$1,515 Vol.

12%

1650

$41,310 Vol.

1700

$17,067 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

CDC surveillance data shows 64 confirmed measles cases in the US from January 1 to March 28, 2024, concentrated in outbreaks at a Chicago shelter housing over 900 migrants, a Florida elementary school, and smaller clusters in six other states, primarily among unvaccinated individuals exposed via international travel. This uptick reflects measles' high transmissibility (R0 of 12–18) amid pockets of vaccine hesitancy below the 95% herd immunity threshold, echoing 2019's 1,282-case record. Traders should watch CDC's weekly MMWR reports through March 31 for final tallies, as underreporting or new exposures could push counts higher; official data resolves the market post-deadline. Model consensus anticipates modest further rises absent new importations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 5:22 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1400" at 100%, followed by "1450" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" has generated $233.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" is "1400" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1450" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $233.2K traded on “Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "1400" in the "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "1400" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?" market has an active community of 855 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

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Market Context

Market Context

Comments (855)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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