Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their dominant 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia on March 27, showcasing Lamine Yamal's return and defensive solidity as Euro 2024 champions. However, the race remains tightly contested with England (12.8%) drawing Uruguay 1-1, France (10.9%) grinding out a 2-1 upset over Brazil despite a late red card—thanks to Kylian Mbappé's goal—and Argentina (9.8%) dispatching Mauritania 2-0, reflecting deep squads and recent qualifier dominance. Brazil's (8.6%) narrow loss highlights vulnerabilities, while the expanded 48-team format and challenging group draw post-December keep upside potential alive for all top contenders ahead of the June 11 kickoff across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,689,923 Vol.
$415,689,923 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,689,923 Vol.
$415,689,923 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their dominant 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia on March 27, showcasing Lamine Yamal's return and defensive solidity as Euro 2024 champions. However, the race remains tightly contested with England (12.8%) drawing Uruguay 1-1, France (10.9%) grinding out a 2-1 upset over Brazil despite a late red card—thanks to Kylian Mbappé's goal—and Argentina (9.8%) dispatching Mauritania 2-0, reflecting deep squads and recent qualifier dominance. Brazil's (8.6%) narrow loss highlights vulnerabilities, while the expanded 48-team format and challenging group draw post-December keep upside potential alive for all top contenders ahead of the June 11 kickoff across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions