Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to "Yes" on no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting contained geopolitical tensions and stable leadership structures. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Strait of Hormuz incidents have avoided broader escalation or regime change, while Ukraine-Russia exchanges remain below NATO-incursion thresholds following a brief Victory Day truce. President Trump continues routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers, and Xi Jinping's position holds steady ahead of any U.S.-China diplomatic meetings. Bitcoin remains within established ranges, sidestepping all-time-high triggers, and no large-scale natural disasters have materialized. November midterm risks for Senate control persist but have yet to shift the crowd-sourced assessment toward decisive disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$567,508 Vol.
$567,508 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$567,508 Vol.
$567,508 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 64.5% implied probability to "Yes" on no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting contained geopolitical tensions and stable leadership structures. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Strait of Hormuz incidents have avoided broader escalation or regime change, while Ukraine-Russia exchanges remain below NATO-incursion thresholds following a brief Victory Day truce. President Trump continues routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers, and Xi Jinping's position holds steady ahead of any U.S.-China diplomatic meetings. Bitcoin remains within established ranges, sidestepping all-time-high triggers, and no large-scale natural disasters have materialized. November midterm risks for Senate control persist but have yet to shift the crowd-sourced assessment toward decisive disruption.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$567,508End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 64.5% implied probability to "Yes" on no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting contained geopolitical tensions and stable leadership structures. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Strait of Hormuz incidents have avoided broader escalation or regime change, while Ukraine-Russia exchanges remain below NATO-incursion thresholds following a brief Victory Day truce. President Trump continues routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers, and Xi Jinping's position holds steady ahead of any U.S.-China diplomatic meetings. Bitcoin remains within established ranges, sidestepping all-time-high triggers, and no large-scale natural disasters have materialized. November midterm risks for Senate control persist but have yet to shift the crowd-sourced assessment toward decisive disruption.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$567,508End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to "Yes" on no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting contained geopolitical tensions and stable leadership structures. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Strait of Hormuz incidents have avoided broader escalation or regime change, while Ukraine-Russia exchanges remain below NATO-incursion thresholds following a brief Victory Day truce. President Trump continues routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers, and Xi Jinping's position holds steady ahead of any U.S.-China diplomatic meetings. Bitcoin remains within established ranges, sidestepping all-time-high triggers, and no large-scale natural disasters have materialized. November midterm risks for Senate control persist but have yet to shift the crowd-sourced assessment toward decisive disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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