Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no major triggering events occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting an uneventful start to the year with President Trump remaining in office, stable Bitcoin prices between $10k and $1M, no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, absent invasions by China into Taiwan, U.S. into Iran, or Russia into a NATO country, and no qualifying natural disasters like a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent diplomatic rhetoric on Iran and ongoing midterm campaigning have raised minor risks of a Republican Senate supermajority post-November elections or escalation signals, but base rates from historical non-events and the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets sustain optimism for continuation of the status quo amid simmering but contained geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$511,661 Vol.
$511,661 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$511,661 Vol.
$511,661 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no major triggering events occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting an uneventful start to the year with President Trump remaining in office, stable Bitcoin prices between $10k and $1M, no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, absent invasions by China into Taiwan, U.S. into Iran, or Russia into a NATO country, and no qualifying natural disasters like a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent diplomatic rhetoric on Iran and ongoing midterm campaigning have raised minor risks of a Republican Senate supermajority post-November elections or escalation signals, but base rates from historical non-events and the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets sustain optimism for continuation of the status quo amid simmering but contained geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$511,661End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no major triggering events occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting an uneventful start to the year with President Trump remaining in office, stable Bitcoin prices between $10k and $1M, no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, absent invasions by China into Taiwan, U.S. into Iran, or Russia into a NATO country, and no qualifying natural disasters like a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent diplomatic rhetoric on Iran and ongoing midterm campaigning have raised minor risks of a Republican Senate supermajority post-November elections or escalation signals, but base rates from historical non-events and the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets sustain optimism for continuation of the status quo amid simmering but contained geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$511,661End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no major triggering events occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting an uneventful start to the year with President Trump remaining in office, stable Bitcoin prices between $10k and $1M, no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, absent invasions by China into Taiwan, U.S. into Iran, or Russia into a NATO country, and no qualifying natural disasters like a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent diplomatic rhetoric on Iran and ongoing midterm campaigning have raised minor risks of a Republican Senate supermajority post-November elections or escalation signals, but base rates from historical non-events and the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets sustain optimism for continuation of the status quo amid simmering but contained geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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