Trader consensus on a 70.5% chance that none of the predefined trigger events occur by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of escalations meeting exact resolution criteria in the first five months of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine drone activity have remained below thresholds such as regime change, full-scale invasion of a NATO member, or a U.S. invasion of Iran. No leadership shifts involving Trump, Xi, or Khamenei have materialized, and markets show no movement toward a Republican Senate supermajority or extreme Bitcoin volatility. Scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through mid-2026, including any potential ceasefire talks or confirmation votes, have not yet produced outcomes that would alter the current positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNada Nunca Acontece: 2026
Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026
Sim
$594,476 Vol.
$594,476 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$594,476 Vol.
$594,476 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on a 70.5% chance that none of the predefined trigger events occur by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of escalations meeting exact resolution criteria in the first five months of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine drone activity have remained below thresholds such as regime change, full-scale invasion of a NATO member, or a U.S. invasion of Iran. No leadership shifts involving Trump, Xi, or Khamenei have materialized, and markets show no movement toward a Republican Senate supermajority or extreme Bitcoin volatility. Scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through mid-2026, including any potential ceasefire talks or confirmation votes, have not yet produced outcomes that would alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$594,476Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on a 70.5% chance that none of the predefined trigger events occur by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of escalations meeting exact resolution criteria in the first five months of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine drone activity have remained below thresholds such as regime change, full-scale invasion of a NATO member, or a U.S. invasion of Iran. No leadership shifts involving Trump, Xi, or Khamenei have materialized, and markets show no movement toward a Republican Senate supermajority or extreme Bitcoin volatility. Scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through mid-2026, including any potential ceasefire talks or confirmation votes, have not yet produced outcomes that would alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$594,476Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 70.5% chance that none of the predefined trigger events occur by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of escalations meeting exact resolution criteria in the first five months of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine drone activity have remained below thresholds such as regime change, full-scale invasion of a NATO member, or a U.S. invasion of Iran. No leadership shifts involving Trump, Xi, or Khamenei have materialized, and markets show no movement toward a Republican Senate supermajority or extreme Bitcoin volatility. Scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through mid-2026, including any potential ceasefire talks or confirmation votes, have not yet produced outcomes that would alter the current positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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