Market icon
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

Market icon
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$5,168,367 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$5,168,367 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$2,964,251 Vol.

2%

April 30

$1,330,679 Vol.

22%

May 31

$35,349 Vol.

30%

June 30

$14,550 Vol.

39%

December 31

$823,538 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes prompted Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader on March 9 amid escalating war. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, cited in late March by The Washington Post, indicate Mojtaba may be critically wounded and unresponsive from the same strikes, with no public appearances fueling speculation of a leadership vacuum. The IRGC maintains de facto control, rejecting de-escalation proposals as of March 17. Traders monitor for official confirmation of Mojtaba's status, potential further succession via the clerical panel, or war developments like Hormuz Strait tensions that could force transitions.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes prompted Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader on March 9 amid escalating war. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, cited in late March by The Washington Post, indicate Mojtaba may be critically wounded and unresponsive from the same strikes, with no public appearances fueling speculation of a leadership vacuum. The IRGC maintains de facto control, rejecting de-escalation proposals as of March 17. Traders monitor for official confirmation of Mojtaba's status, potential further succession via the clerical panel, or war developments like Hormuz Strait tensions that could force transitions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes prompted Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader on March 9 amid escalating war. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, cited in late March by The Washington Post, indicate Mojtaba may be critically wounded and unresponsive from the same strikes, with no public appearances fueling speculation of a leadership vacuum. The IRGC maintains de facto control, rejecting de-escalation proposals as of March 17. Traders monitor for official confirmation of Mojtaba's status, potential further succession via the clerical panel, or war developments like Hormuz Strait tensions that could force transitions.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes prompted Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader on March 9 amid escalating war. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, cited in late March by The Washington Post, indicate Mojtaba may be critically wounded and unresponsive from the same strikes, with no public appearances fueling speculation of a leadership vacuum. The IRGC maintains de facto control, rejecting de-escalation proposals as of March 17. Traders monitor for official confirmation of Mojtaba's status, potential further succession via the clerical panel, or war developments like Hormuz Strait tensions that could force transitions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 53%, followed by "June 30" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $5.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "December 31" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.