Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate WTI crude oil pricing as of mid-May 2026, with Brent benchmarks trading near $107–$111 per barrel amid ongoing production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA projecting an average 8.5 million barrels per day global stock decline through the second quarter that supports elevated prices into June. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on sustained supply constraints, tempered by expectations of gradual shipping recovery and potential OPEC+ adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic progress on Hormuz reopenings, weekly EIA inventory reports, and FOMC signals on broader risk appetite that could influence demand forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$122,225 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$90
58%
$85
60%
$80
69%
$75
76%
$70
87%
$65
95%
$63
94%
$60
97%
$56
97%
$55
95%
$52
96%
$50
99%
$122,225 Vol.
$90
$25,017 Vol.
58%
$85
$5,174 Vol.
60%
$80
$5,495 Vol.
69%
$75
$15,583 Vol.
76%
$70
$19,604 Vol.
87%
$65
$848 Vol.
95%
$63
$8,949 Vol.
94%
$60
$21,018 Vol.
97%
$56
$4,740 Vol.
97%
$55
$2,859 Vol.
95%
$52
$5,618 Vol.
96%
$50
$7,321 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate WTI crude oil pricing as of mid-May 2026, with Brent benchmarks trading near $107–$111 per barrel amid ongoing production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA projecting an average 8.5 million barrels per day global stock decline through the second quarter that supports elevated prices into June. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on sustained supply constraints, tempered by expectations of gradual shipping recovery and potential OPEC+ adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic progress on Hormuz reopenings, weekly EIA inventory reports, and FOMC signals on broader risk appetite that could influence demand forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$122,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate WTI crude oil pricing as of mid-May 2026, with Brent benchmarks trading near $107–$111 per barrel amid ongoing production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA projecting an average 8.5 million barrels per day global stock decline through the second quarter that supports elevated prices into June. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on sustained supply constraints, tempered by expectations of gradual shipping recovery and potential OPEC+ adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic progress on Hormuz reopenings, weekly EIA inventory reports, and FOMC signals on broader risk appetite that could influence demand forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$122,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate WTI crude oil pricing as of mid-May 2026, with Brent benchmarks trading near $107–$111 per barrel amid ongoing production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These disruptions have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA projecting an average 8.5 million barrels per day global stock decline through the second quarter that supports elevated prices into June. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on sustained supply constraints, tempered by expectations of gradual shipping recovery and potential OPEC+ adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic progress on Hormuz reopenings, weekly EIA inventory reports, and FOMC signals on broader risk appetite that could influence demand forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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