Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran conflict, have tightened global oil supply balances and supported elevated crude prices near $106–$108 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. The EIA projects significant inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining front-month WTI levels around $106 through June before gradual recovery in flows begins later in the period. This supply-side pressure outweighs modest demand growth and rising non-OPEC output, creating a risk premium that traders are pricing into end-of-June settlement expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include June EIA inventory data, any diplomatic signals on Strait reopening, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could influence near-term volatility in the Crude Oil (CL) contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$122,444 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$90
75%
$85
65%
$80
69%
$75
76%
$70
89%
$65
90%
$63
94%
$60
97%
$56
97%
$55
96%
$52
98%
$50
97%
$122,444 Vol.
$90
$25,112 Vol.
75%
$85
$5,174 Vol.
65%
$80
$5,495 Vol.
69%
$75
$15,583 Vol.
76%
$70
$19,604 Vol.
89%
$65
$848 Vol.
90%
$63
$8,949 Vol.
94%
$60
$21,018 Vol.
97%
$56
$4,740 Vol.
97%
$55
$2,859 Vol.
96%
$52
$5,714 Vol.
98%
$50
$7,349 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran conflict, have tightened global oil supply balances and supported elevated crude prices near $106–$108 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. The EIA projects significant inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining front-month WTI levels around $106 through June before gradual recovery in flows begins later in the period. This supply-side pressure outweighs modest demand growth and rising non-OPEC output, creating a risk premium that traders are pricing into end-of-June settlement expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include June EIA inventory data, any diplomatic signals on Strait reopening, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could influence near-term volatility in the Crude Oil (CL) contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$122,444End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran conflict, have tightened global oil supply balances and supported elevated crude prices near $106–$108 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. The EIA projects significant inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining front-month WTI levels around $106 through June before gradual recovery in flows begins later in the period. This supply-side pressure outweighs modest demand growth and rising non-OPEC output, creating a risk premium that traders are pricing into end-of-June settlement expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include June EIA inventory data, any diplomatic signals on Strait reopening, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could influence near-term volatility in the Crude Oil (CL) contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$122,444End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran conflict, have tightened global oil supply balances and supported elevated crude prices near $106–$108 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. The EIA projects significant inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining front-month WTI levels around $106 through June before gradual recovery in flows begins later in the period. This supply-side pressure outweighs modest demand growth and rising non-OPEC output, creating a risk premium that traders are pricing into end-of-June settlement expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include June EIA inventory data, any diplomatic signals on Strait reopening, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could influence near-term volatility in the Crude Oil (CL) contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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