Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude futures sharply higher, with prices trading near $106–$108 per barrel in mid-May 2026 after Brent briefly spiked above $138 earlier in the spring. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed tanker traffic and forced sharp inventory draws, supporting elevated levels into the end of June even as OPEC+ implements a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase. Traders are monitoring weekly EIA inventory reports, refinery utilization near 92 percent, and any progress toward reopening Gulf shipping routes, which Goldman Sachs and the EIA currently assume will begin normalizing by late June. Summer driving-season demand and potential further production adjustments remain key swing factors for June settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$122,225 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$90
58%
$85
60%
$80
69%
$75
76%
$70
87%
$65
95%
$63
94%
$60
97%
$56
97%
$55
95%
$52
96%
$50
99%
$122,225 Vol.
$90
$25,017 Vol.
58%
$85
$5,174 Vol.
60%
$80
$5,495 Vol.
69%
$75
$15,583 Vol.
76%
$70
$19,604 Vol.
87%
$65
$848 Vol.
95%
$63
$8,949 Vol.
94%
$60
$21,018 Vol.
97%
$56
$4,740 Vol.
97%
$55
$2,859 Vol.
95%
$52
$5,618 Vol.
96%
$50
$7,321 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude futures sharply higher, with prices trading near $106–$108 per barrel in mid-May 2026 after Brent briefly spiked above $138 earlier in the spring. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed tanker traffic and forced sharp inventory draws, supporting elevated levels into the end of June even as OPEC+ implements a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase. Traders are monitoring weekly EIA inventory reports, refinery utilization near 92 percent, and any progress toward reopening Gulf shipping routes, which Goldman Sachs and the EIA currently assume will begin normalizing by late June. Summer driving-season demand and potential further production adjustments remain key swing factors for June settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$122,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude futures sharply higher, with prices trading near $106–$108 per barrel in mid-May 2026 after Brent briefly spiked above $138 earlier in the spring. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed tanker traffic and forced sharp inventory draws, supporting elevated levels into the end of June even as OPEC+ implements a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase. Traders are monitoring weekly EIA inventory reports, refinery utilization near 92 percent, and any progress toward reopening Gulf shipping routes, which Goldman Sachs and the EIA currently assume will begin normalizing by late June. Summer driving-season demand and potential further production adjustments remain key swing factors for June settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$122,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude futures sharply higher, with prices trading near $106–$108 per barrel in mid-May 2026 after Brent briefly spiked above $138 earlier in the spring. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed tanker traffic and forced sharp inventory draws, supporting elevated levels into the end of June even as OPEC+ implements a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase. Traders are monitoring weekly EIA inventory reports, refinery utilization near 92 percent, and any progress toward reopening Gulf shipping routes, which Goldman Sachs and the EIA currently assume will begin normalizing by late June. Summer driving-season demand and potential further production adjustments remain key swing factors for June settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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